Abstract

Waste Connections will report its second-quarter results on July 22, 2026 Post-Mkt. Consensus implies moderate top-line growth with stable margins and incremental EPS gains; investors will watch price discipline, volume recovery, and commodity-linked tailwinds to gauge momentum into the back half of the year.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, market forecasts indicate revenue of 2.54 billion US dollars, an estimated year-over-year increase of 6.09%, with EBIT projected at 507.56 million US dollars, up 8.60% year over year, and EPS of 1.36, up 9.17% year over year. Based on the company’s prior disclosures, investors look for gross margin stability and a net profit margin profile consistent with recent quarters; adjusted EPS growth is expected to outpace revenue on ongoing mix and efficiency gains. Management’s focus remains on price realization, disciplined M&A integration, and solid landfill throughput, while recycling and renewable natural gas exposure provide incremental upside; the franchise collection business remains the backbone with resilient cash generation. The most promising near-term opportunity is the core collection business at 1.70 billion US dollars last quarter, with pricing and tuck-in contributions supporting mid‑single‑digit organic growth.

Last Quarter Review

Last quarter, Waste Connections delivered revenue of 2.37 billion US dollars, a year-over-year increase of 6.39%, with a gross profit margin of 42.58%, GAAP net income attributable to shareholders of 219.00 million US dollars, a net profit margin of 9.25%, and adjusted EPS of 1.23, which rose 8.85% year over year. The quarter featured continued price-led expansion and solid cost control that kept margins resilient despite mixed commodity prices. By business line, the company generated 1.70 billion US dollars from collection, 213.36 million US dollars from landfills, 179.56 million US dollars from exploration and production-related revenue, 172.75 million US dollars from transfer, 51.59 million US dollars from recycling, and 48.93 million US dollars from intermodal and other operations.

Current Quarter Outlook

Core Solid Waste Collection

The collection segment is positioned to drive steady growth through contractual price escalators, CPI-linked adjustments, and disciplined surcharges that offset wage and fuel variability. With last quarter’s 1.70 billion US dollars of revenue and the highest contribution to mix, the business should benefit from continued municipal and exclusive franchise stability and improving small-container volumes as commercial activity normalizes. We expect mid‑single‑digit organic revenue growth, supplemented by tuck-in acquisitions, to translate into operating leverage, helping adjusted EPS growth exceed revenue growth even if commodity-sensitive lines remain uneven.

Landfill, Transfer, and Disposal Throughput

Gate rate strength and higher special waste volumes are key drivers for disposal in the current quarter. Landfill revenue of 213.36 million US dollars last quarter provides a solid base, and any incremental volume from construction, industrial projects, or wildfire debris work would support both mix and margin. Transfer station throughput should track core collection volumes, while disciplined pricing on disposal is expected to sustain gross margin near recent levels, helping counter labor and fleet maintenance inflation.

Commodity-Linked Streams and Renewable Energy

Recycling revenue at 51.59 million US dollars remains sensitive to commodity benchmarks, but better mixed paper and OCC pricing from earlier in the quarter could provide a modest tailwind relative to the prior-year period. Exploration and production-related revenue of 179.56 million US dollars and renewable gas realizations can add variability; clarity around volumes and realized pricing will influence EBIT in the near term. The net effect of these commodity-linked factors is likely to be incremental, but positive, supporting the forecasted 8.60% EBIT growth if market conditions hold.

Tuck-in M&A and Integration

The company’s disciplined acquisition strategy continues to add density to existing markets, enhancing route efficiency and cross-selling opportunities across collection, transfer, and landfill assets. Integration synergies, including fleet optimization and procurement scale, should support cost per stop improvements even as wage and parts inflation persists. A steady pace of small deals combined with selective larger transactions could provide upside to the revenue trajectory without materially elevating risk, provided integration timelines and customer retention remain on track.

Cost Structure and Margin Dynamics

Fleet operations, parts, and labor remain the central cost variables this quarter. Price discipline and fuel recovery mechanisms are expected to offset most inflationary pressure, while technology investments in routing and maintenance management help reduce downtime. With a 42.58% gross margin baseline last quarter and a 9.25% net margin, maintaining mix toward higher-margin disposal and special waste should preserve margin despite commodity swings, supporting a forecasted adjusted EPS of 1.36.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent institutional previews, the majority stance is bullish, citing resilient price-led growth, healthy special waste pipelines, and disciplined M&A as support for mid‑single‑digit revenue expansion with faster EPS growth. Several large sell-side desks highlight stable core pricing and disposal leverage as the primary drivers underpinning the 6.09% revenue and 9.17% EPS growth forecasts for the quarter. Positive commentary from well-followed analysts emphasizes defensiveness of the franchise collection base, incremental upside from special waste at key landfills, and the likelihood that adjusted margins remain near recent highs; the bullish camp outweighs cautious views focused on recycling volatility and labor inflation.