The crude oil market experienced a full-scale surge. Amid escalating tensions, oil transportation in the Middle East continues to face disruptions. Major oil-producing nations including Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait have announced production cuts, leading to a continuous expansion in international oil price increases. During early trading hours Beijing time, WTI crude oil futures surged over 22% at the opening, reaching a high of $111.24 per barrel. Brent crude futures jumped over 19%, peaking at $110.7 per barrel. JPMorgan indicated that the wave of production halts among Middle Eastern oil producers is spreading rapidly, with potential shutdowns possibly approaching 6 million barrels per day. A full shutdown could drive oil prices up by $30 per barrel. Goldman Sachs warned that oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted by 90%. If the crisis persists, oil prices could surpass the historical peak seen in 2008.

Regarding the situation in Iran, according to the latest reports from CCTV News, Iran's Assembly of Experts has confirmed Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader of Iran. Public records show that Mojtaba Khamenei, born in 1969, is the second son of the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

At the opening, prices surged over 22%. In early trading on March 9, the two major international benchmark crude oil futures contracts rose sharply after the market opened. As of 06:30 Beijing time, WTI crude futures were up over 18%, trading at $107.89 per barrel, after briefly surging over 22% post-opening. Brent crude futures increased over 16%, reaching $108.09 per barrel.

Market news indicates that as commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is nearly paralyzed, crude oil exports from the Gulf region are increasingly obstructed, leading to a rapid accumulation of inventories. Once storage tanks and offshore tanker capacities are filled, some oil-producing countries will be forced to reduce output, bringing a regional "wave of production halts" triggered by logistical bottlenecks closer. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) and Kuwait Petroleum Corporation have successively announced production cuts. The former stated it is "adjusting offshore production levels to accommodate storage needs," while the latter explicitly attributed the cuts to "Iran's threats to the safe passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz."

According to informed sources, Iraq's oil production has already dropped by approximately 60% due to a shortage of available tankers for loading crude, a consequence of the Iran conflict. Iraq's current daily oil output is about 1.7 to 1.8 million barrels, compared to roughly 4.3 million barrels per day before the conflict began.

JPMorgan stated that the "wave of production halts" among Middle Eastern oil producers is spreading swiftly. A full shutdown could cause oil prices to surge by $30 per barrel. JPMorgan commodities analyst Natasha Kaneva estimated in a recent report that supply disruptions in the Gulf region may have risen to 3 million barrels per day last weekend and could exceed 4 million barrels per day this weekend. If refined product storage capacity is exhausted, the scale of shutdowns might even approach 6 million barrels per day.

Simultaneously, Goldman Sachs monitoring data shows that oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has plunged by about 90%. If the situation does not ease in the coming days, the bank believes the probability of oil prices breaking above $100 per barrel next week will significantly increase. Should the strait's transport remain obstructed throughout March, oil prices could potentially challenge the historical highs seen in 2008 and 2022. Calculated based on the Persian Gulf's total export capacity, this change implies a potential supply shock scale of 17.1 million barrels per day—equivalent to 17 times the peak reduction seen from Russia in April 2022.

Additionally, influenced by the ongoing escalation of Middle East tensions, futures for the three major US stock indices all declined. As of 06:30 Beijing time on March 9, Dow Jones futures fell 1.84%, S&P 500 futures dropped 1.58%, and Nasdaq 100 futures decreased 1.52%. Spot gold and silver prices also fell rapidly, declining by 0.94% and 1.84% respectively.

Khamenei's Son Elected New Supreme Leader of Iran According to reports from CCTV News, on March 9 local time, correspondents learned that Iran's Assembly of Experts has determined Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader of Iran. Public information indicates that Mojtaba Khamenei was born in 1969 and is the second son of the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. On February 28 local time, Ali Khamenei was killed in an attack on Iran by the United States and Israel.

From 1978 to 1979, religious leader Khomeini led the Islamic Revolution in Iran, overthrowing the Pahlavi dynasty. On April 1, 1979, the Islamic Republic of Iran was established, implementing a theocratic system with Khomeini serving as the first Supreme Leader. After Khomeini's death in 1989, then-President Khamenei succeeded him as Supreme Leader. According to Iran's constitution, the Supreme Leader holds ultimate decision-making power over various major affairs and serves as the Supreme Commander of the Iranian armed forces. The Assembly of Experts is the highest authority responsible for electing, supervising, and dismissing the Supreme Leader of Iran.

In the early hours of March 9 local time, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement congratulating Mojtaba Khamenei on his election as Iran's Supreme Leader and expressing support for the Assembly's decision. The statement noted that this election marks a new phase for the Iranian revolution, demonstrating that the Islamic system's operation does not depend on individuals, and that the revolution and the nation will continue forward. The Revolutionary Guard stated it would strictly follow all directives issued by Mojtaba Khamenei, defend the values of the Islamic Revolution, and protect the precious legacy left by previous Imams and revolutionary leaders. The Guard emphasized its commitment to fully ensuring the Supreme Leader's command authority and the nation's security.

According to Xinhua News Agency, US President Trump threatened on March 8 that any new Iranian leader not approved by him "will not last long." In an interview with ABC, Trump stated that Iran's appointed new leader "must have our approval," otherwise "he will not last long." Trump also mentioned that he would consider accepting someone associated with Iran's "old regime" as the new leader, noting that "there are many people who could qualify." On March 5, Trump claimed he "must be personally involved" in selecting Iran's next leader, vowing not to accept the son of the late Supreme Leader Khamenei for the position. He indicated that if Iran produces a new leader who "continues Khamenei's policies," it would force the United States to "return to war within five years."