Indonesia has recently criticized an economist from Citigroup over a report suggesting the country's budget deficit this year might exceed the legal limit. This incident highlights the growing pressure global banks face when publishing research that governments perceive as unfavorable.

During a business forum in Jakarta on Tuesday, Indonesian Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa made unusually sharp remarks. He pointed out that Helmi Arman, the Citi economist who authored the report and holds two master's degrees, is "not a real economist" due to his lack of a doctoral degree.

"You should ask the doctor," Purbaya said at the forum, gesturing toward himself.

Citigroup declined to comment.

The episode underscores the heightened sensitivity among policymakers in Southeast Asia's largest economy, who are striving to prevent another wave of selling in the country's bond and stock markets.

This marks the second instance in recent weeks where a senior finance official has publicly criticized a bank analyst, following U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's rebuttal of a Deutsche Bank report.

Retaliatory actions are not new in Indonesia. Nearly a decade ago, after JPMorgan downgraded its rating on Indonesian equities, the government severed ties with the bank. Indonesia's finance ministry ceased using JPMorgan as a primary dealer and no longer appointed it as an underwriter for sovereign bonds.

In a recent January report, Citi revised its forecast for Indonesia's 2026 budget deficit, raising it from an initial estimate of 2.7% of GDP to 3.5%, which breaches the 3% cap established by law after the Asian financial crisis.

The bank projected that President Prabowo Subianto's free meal program, potentially fully implemented this year, could cost approximately $18 billion. The report added that rebuilding flood-affected provinces might require an additional $3.6 billion in state expenditure.

Citi's report was released as Indonesia's fiscal deficit for 2025 had already surged to 2.92%, significantly exceeding both the original target of 2.53% and the revised target of 2.78%. Data tracing back to 2005 shows this deficit ratio is the highest on record, excluding the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021.

"I don't want to breach the 3% level because the media would 'crucify' me, telling everyone I don't understand my job," Purbaya stated. "I don't want to take risks or experiment casually with this matter at present."

Arman, who joined Citigroup in 2011, holds a master's degree in International Money and Banking from the University of Birmingham and a master's degree in Financial Economics from the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium.

Purbaya earned his master's and doctoral degrees in economics from Purdue University in Indiana. The official asserted, "I have a very thorough understanding of fiscal policy."