On July 27, on-chain data indicated that the proportion of Bitcoin supply in a profitable state is approaching 60%, reflecting how recent price improvements have improved the cost positions of some holders. EasyMarkets stated that an increase in profitable chips can help gauge the degree of market sentiment recovery. The analysis also cautioned that rebounds may still face a potential decline, as EasyMarkets believes that when a large number of chips are near breakeven, both profit-taking and sell-offs from traders exiting positions could emerge simultaneously.

A rise in the profitable supply ratio often accompanies improved sentiment, but its interpretation needs to be tied to the price cycle phase. If new demand is insufficient, the expansion of profitable positions may also create short-term supply; conversely, if trading volume is active, it can help sustain the recovery. From a market structure perspective, digital asset prices are influenced not only by news events but also closely linked to spot market depth, derivatives leverage, and the behavior of long-term holders. EasyMarkets noted that when trading activity declines, fund flows of a similar scale can cause more pronounced price swings, making it necessary to analyze on-chain data, fund flows, and exchange balances within a unified framework.

Short-term sentiment improvements do not necessarily mean a trend reversal has occurred. EasyMarkets analysis suggests that if a price rally is primarily driven by short covering, and new spot demand fails to persist, the market may quickly re-enter a consolidation phase. Only when volume, net capital inflows, and key price level breakouts align does the market structure become more robust. The continuity of subsequent data holds more reference value than single-day changes. Moving forward, attention should be paid to whether the profit ratio can stabilize at a higher range, and whether spot trading volume strengthens in tandem. EasyMarkets judges that current signals are leaning toward improvement, but the market still needs to test sustainability through key resistance levels.