**Pre-Market Moves** 1. On Monday, November 3, U.S. stock index futures for the three major indices rose. As of writing, Dow futures were up 0.11%, S&P 500 futures gained 0.35%, and Nasdaq futures climbed 0.63%. 2. European markets also saw gains: Germany’s DAX rose 1.09%, the UK’s FTSE 100 edged up 0.06%, France’s CAC 40 increased 0.06%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 advanced 0.57%. 3. Oil prices were mixed, with WTI crude flat at $60.98 per barrel, while Brent crude dipped 0.02% to $64.76 per barrel.

**Market Highlights** - **AI Earnings in Focus**: This week, key AI-related companies—including Palantir (PLTR.US), AMD (AMD.US), Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US), and Constellation Energy (CEG.US)—are set to report quarterly earnings, keeping the AI theme at the forefront. - **Economic Data Uncertainty**: Due to the ongoing government shutdown, October’s nonfarm payrolls report may face a second consecutive delay. Investors will rely on Wednesday’s ADP employment data and PMI figures from ISM and S&P Global for insights. The University of Michigan’s preliminary November consumer sentiment index on Friday will also be watched.

**Warning Signs for Stocks** Despite a six-month rally, Wall Street bulls like Yardeni Research’s Ed Yardeni warn of excessive optimism. Yardeni predicts the S&P 500 could drop up to 5% by year-end, citing overbought conditions.

**Earnings Beat, but Market Unimpressed** Goldman Sachs notes that 64% of S&P 500 companies reporting so far have exceeded earnings estimates by at least one standard deviation. However, investor focus remains on AI and macro uncertainties, overshadowing strong results.

**U.S. Economic Resilience Amid Data Gaps** With the government shutdown delaying key reports, analysts are piecing together economic health using alternative indicators like credit card spending and state-level jobless claims. Evidence suggests the economy continues expanding despite headwinds.

**Treasury Secretary’s Rate Warning** U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that high interest rates are pushing housing into a recession, urging the Fed to accelerate rate cuts. He criticized Fed Chair Powell’s hint at a December pause, calling the economy a 「transition period.」

**OPEC+ Pauses Output Hike, Morgan Stanley Raises Oil Forecast** OPEC+ will halt production increases in Q1 2025 but plans a modest December hike. Morgan Stanley raised its Brent crude price forecast to $60 per barrel for H1 2026.

**Notable Stock Moves** - **Alphabet (GOOGL.US)**: Plans a €3 billion euro bond issuance to fund AI and cloud infrastructure. - **Cipher Mining (CIFR.US)**: Beat Q3 EPS estimates and secured a $5.5 billion AWS deal for AI workloads. Shares surged 18% pre-market. - **IREN Ltd (IREN.US)**: Signed a $9.7 billion AI cloud deal with Microsoft, sending shares up 21%. - **CompoSecure (CMPO.US)**: Rose 3% on reports of a $5 billion acquisition of Husky Technologies. - **Kimberly-Clark (KMB.US)**: Fell 15% after announcing a $48.7 billion cash-and-stock deal to acquire Kenvue (KVUE.US), which jumped 20%.

**Upcoming Economic Events** - 22:45 Beijing Time: U.S. October SPGI Manufacturing PMI - 23:00 Beijing Time: U.S. October ISM Manufacturing PMI - 01:00 (Next Day): San Francisco Fed President Daly speaks - 03:00 (Next Day): Fed Governor Lisa Cook discusses economic outlook

**Earnings Calendar** - **Tuesday Pre-Market**: BP (BP.US), Philips (PHG.US), Spotify (SPOT.US), Uber (UBER.US), Shopify (SHOP.US), Pfizer (PFE.US), Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH.US).