Spot gold (XAU/USD) staged a modest rebound during the Asian trading session on Friday, with prices climbing back near the $4500 level. This follows a previous session where gold touched a near two-month low. Concerns over a further escalation in Middle East tensions have temporarily eased. News of a potential extended ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran has helped stabilize market sentiment, prompting a technical correction in gold following its consecutive declines.
The United States and Iran have preliminarily reached an agreement for a 60-day extension of the ceasefire, with further negotiations planned around Iran's nuclear program. The market views this as a sign that the months-long regional conflict may be gradually moving towards a de-escalation phase, thereby reducing global concerns over energy supply disruptions and regional security risks.
However, the finalization of the agreement remains pending. US President Trump has not formally approved the relevant terms, and both sides have previously released positive signals only to delay the implementation of agreements. Market participants believe that while short-term risk sentiment has improved, the situation in the Middle East still carries significant uncertainty, particularly regarding core issues such as the nuclear program, regional military deployments, and sanctions arrangements, where complex negotiations lie ahead.
It is noteworthy that this rebound in gold is not solely driven by traditional safe-haven demand. To a larger extent, it stems from a market reassessment of expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy. Data released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on Thursday showed that the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for April rose 3.8% year-over-year, higher than the previous 3.5% and in line with market expectations. Meanwhile, the core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased 3.3% year-over-year, slightly above the prior 3.2%.
Although inflation data remains elevated overall, the fact that the figures did not significantly exceed market expectations has tempered investors' concerns about further aggressive rate hikes from the Fed. The market had been worried about stronger inflationary signals from the PCE data, but the in-line result has alleviated some selling pressure in the gold market.
Furthermore, monthly data showed the US PCE rose 0.4% month-over-month in April, with core PCE up 0.2%, indicating that US inflation retains some stickiness but has not re-entered a runaway state. Some analysts believe this may suggest the Fed is more inclined to maintain high interest rates for a longer period rather than immediately tightening policy further.
The gold market is currently influenced by multiple factors. On one hand, the easing of Middle East tensions has reduced extreme safe-haven demand. On the other hand, US inflation data not exceeding expectations has provided gold with some breathing room. The market is currently in a phase of repeated博弈 between "high-interest-rate pressure" and "recovering safe-haven demand."
Looking at global asset performance, international oil prices have retreated significantly recently, further dampening concerns about imported inflation. WTI crude oil has fallen nearly 15% month-to-date, indicating that the energy risk premium driven by the Middle East situation is rapidly dissipating. This change has somewhat alleviated the inflationary pressure on gold, but it has also diminished gold's short-term appeal as an inflation hedge.
The US Dollar Index continues to trade in a high range, and the yield on the US 10-year Treasury remains at relatively elevated levels, exerting some pressure on the non-yielding asset gold. Typically, rising US Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, while a stronger US dollar dampens purchasing demand from non-US investors. Therefore, even if gold experiences a short-term rebound, its upside potential remains constrained.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart structure for gold remains weak. After gold prices consecutively broke below key support levels at $4600 and $4550, bearish momentum has clearly strengthened. Although the price has now reclaimed the $4500 psychological level, the overall trend remains in a phase of corrective adjustment. The daily MACD indicator remains below the zero line, and the RSI indicator is hovering around 45, indicating that medium-term momentum is still bearish. If gold fails to effectively reclaim the $4550 area subsequently, it may test support at $4480 or even $4450 again.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, gold shows signs of a technical oversold rebound. The MACD histogram is gradually narrowing, and short-term moving averages are beginning to flatten, suggesting bearish pressure has weakened somewhat. However, the price is still trading below the main moving averages, indicating the market has not truly exited the corrective structure. If gold can break back above the $4525 to $4535 area, it may open up further room for a rebound. Conversely, if the US dollar continues to strengthen, gold could face renewed downward pressure.
Overall, the gold market is currently reassessing the balance between Middle East geopolitical risks and the Federal Reserve's policy path. In the short term, recovering safe-haven demand is providing support for gold prices, but the high-interest-rate environment and strong US dollar continue to limit gold's medium to long-term upside potential.
Recent volatility in the gold market has increased significantly, primarily due to ongoing shifts in market expectations regarding Middle East risks, Fed policy, and US inflation trends. Positive signals from US-Iran ceasefire extension negotiations have led to a temporary easing of safe-haven sentiment. However, as the agreement is not yet finalized, gold retains some support from safe-haven buying. Simultaneously, while US PCE data remains high, its alignment with expectations has reduced investor concerns about further aggressive Fed tightening. Nonetheless, against a backdrop of a strong US dollar and US Treasury yields, gold remains in a phase of high-range consolidation and technical adjustment. The market will focus on upcoming US employment data, Fed official commentary, and developments in the Middle East situation, as these factors will likely determine whether gold can challenge historical highs in the next phase.