As October comes to a close, there is little time left in 2025. Recently, leading institutions both domestically and internationally have begun to forecast investments for 2026.
// Goldman Sachs // On October 22, Goldman Sachs released a Chinese strategy research report, clearly stating that the Chinese stock market is on the verge of a more sustainable upward trend—a "slow bull" market is on the horizon. The report predicts that by the end of 2027, major Chinese stock indices will rise by approximately 30%, driven by 12% trend-driven earnings growth and a 5%-10% upward correction in valuations. Goldman Sachs believes the market is transitioning from a volatile rebound to a steady "slow bull," supported by robust factors in policy, growth, valuation, and capital flows.
Gold: On Tuesday, international gold prices experienced a historic decline. During the day, the spot gold price dropped by as much as 6.3%, marking the largest single-day decrease since April 2013, ultimately closing down 5.3% at $4,123.85 per ounce. Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven noted in a report on Wednesday that the firm remains 「structurally bullish on gold,」 keeping its target price of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026 unchanged. Analysts indicated that a surge in ETF inflows and feedback from clients show that major long-term investors, from sovereign wealth funds to pensions and asset management companies, are planning to increase gold allocations in their portfolios to diversify risk. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs expects that central banks will continue to be stable buyers of gold. The firm noted that following a seasonal lull over the summer, central bank gold purchases may pick up in September and October.
// Bank of America // Since the U.S. stock market entered a bull market more than three years ago, Bank of America stock strategist Savita Subramanian has remained a steadfast optimist. However, recently she and her team have also identified reasons for concern regarding the stock market's trajectory. Subramanian outlined five emerging risks that could impact the S&P 500 index (SPX) and recommended that clients withdraw funds from index-tracking funds in favor of individual stocks.
Firstly, signs of a bear market are beginning to emerge, despite seemingly strong market growth. Historically, when 70% of warning signals surface, the market often peaks, leading investors into a bear market. So far, 60% of the signals tracked by the firm have appeared.
Secondly, the boom in artificial intelligence is inconsistent with consumer resilience. The rise of AI may force companies to lay off more white-collar workers who have driven strong consumer spending. To account for this risk, they recently downgraded their rating for the consumer discretionary sector.
Thirdly, the "Gordian knot" among mega-cap stocks, private enterprises, and the U.S. government is cultivating risks.
Fourthly, macroeconomic uncertainties bring significant risks. The 「macro fog」 surrounding tariff impacts, coupled with the lack of new data during government shutdowns, leaves investors blindly investing.
Fifthly, the firm expressed concerns about recent developments in the private credit sector, referring to them as "canaries and cockroaches," in reference to comments made by JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon last week regarding a few high-profile bankruptcies.
// UBS // Recently, there has been some style switching in the A-share market. UBS securities China equity strategy analyst Meng Lei stated in his latest Chinese stock strategy that the market is currently switching from a technology growth to a value-dividend style, influenced by geopolitical factors and investor profit-taking demands. However, the current market leverage levels are generally controllable, with no signs of overheating. Given the medium-term outlook remains positive, the growth style may outperform the value style.
// Citigroup // On October 22, Citigroup expressed an optimistic outlook for copper prices over the next six months, forecasting an average copper price of $12,000 per ton by the second quarter of 2026 (with an optimistic scenario of $14,000 per ton). Global manufacturing confidence remains mixed, and growth in cyclical demand still faces pressure. However, the firm expects a rebound in copper prices entering 2026, driven by accommodative fiscal and monetary policies in the United States.
// CITIC Securities // The CITIC Securities Mingming team forecasts the Renminbi exchange rate for 2026: assuming no unexpected changes in exports, the Renminbi is expected to show a mild appreciation. On one hand, continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the increasing impact of tariff policies on the U.S. economy, and other fiscal policies coupled with Trump’s ongoing interference in the Fed's independence may lead to a continued weakening trend in the dollar index, creating a relatively friendly external environment for the Renminbi exchange rate. On the other hand, the domestic economic fundamentals are still fundamentally supportive of the exchange rate, with the Renminbi exchange rate displaying a high sensitivity to growth-promoting policies. Additionally, pent-up demand for foreign exchange settlement may be released with the appreciation of the Renminbi, further supporting the exchange rate. Furthermore, the central bank has ample reserves of policy tools to stabilize the exchange rate and is likely to flexibly adjust policy strength to ease expectations of one-sided market movements.