Market optimism driven by the Fed's dovish signals and positive sentiment from the Sino-US leaders' call has gradually been priced in, with short-term upward momentum for risk assets showing signs of weakening.

On November 25, US stock futures declined collectively, while most European indices edged higher. Asian stocks followed the overnight gains in US markets. US Treasury yields remained largely flat, and the US dollar index hovered narrowly above the 100 mark. Gold and silver both rose, while crude oil dipped, and cryptocurrencies retreated after an earlier rally.

Traders widely believe the recent market correction is nearing its end, with risk appetite gradually recovering. The current market focus has shifted to the November jobless claims data due Wednesday, which—in the absence of November nonfarm payrolls—has become a key reference for the Fed to assess economic fundamentals and adjust policy.

Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna International Group, noted:

"The recent market valuation reset and rising December rate-cut expectations have not only driven the recent stock rally but also fueled year-end upward momentum."

Key market movements include:

- **US stock futures** declined: S&P 500 futures fell 0.13%, Nasdaq 100 futures dropped over 0.2%, and Dow Jones futures slipped 0.15%. - **European stocks** opened higher: The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.2%, Germany’s DAX was flat, the UK’s FTSE 100 opened unchanged, and France’s CAC 40 gained 0.25%. - **Asian markets** closed mixed: Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.1% to 48,659.52, while the Topix fell 0.2% to 3,290.89. South Korea’s KOSPI gained 0.3% to 3,857.78. - **US 10-year Treasury yield** stood at 4.036%. - The **US dollar index** dipped 0.03% to 100.15, while the yen weakened 0.18% to 156.6 against the dollar. - **Spot gold** edged up 0.02% to $4,135/oz, **silver** rose 0.14% to $51.4/oz, and **Brent crude** fell over 0.5% to $58.52/barrel. - **Bitcoin** dropped over 0.6% to $87,692.

US stock futures declined as markets balanced policy optimism against economic data uncertainty amid the gradual pricing-in of rate-cut expectations.

Recently, multiple Fed officials have reinforced dovish signals, strengthening market expectations for a December rate cut. Fed Governor Waller and San Francisco Fed President Daly voiced support for a December cut on Monday, while New York Fed President Williams last Friday stated that "a near-term rate cut is possible." These signals have significantly boosted risk appetite.

The market’s focus is now on the December Fed meeting. However, delayed economic data releases due to the US government shutdown have left investors relying on outdated figures, increasing uncertainty about economic fundamentals.

James Egelhof, chief US economist at BNP Paribas, commented:

"Diverging interpretations of lagged data make it difficult to accurately gauge the economy, amplifying short-term volatility risks."

Market pricing currently implies a 70%+ probability of a December Fed rate cut. However, this probability has fluctuated in recent weeks due to policymakers’ internal disagreements and missing key economic data, indicating that rate-cut expectations remain unstable.

Boosted by the tech sector, Asian stocks followed overnight US gains. Optimism around Google’s new AI model and reports of its plans to develop proprietary AI chips bolstered investor confidence in tech stocks.

Spot gold rose slightly to $4,135/oz.