YANCOAL AUS (03668) saw its shares rise more than 5% in late trading. By the time of writing, the stock had increased by 5.38% to HK$45.42, with a turnover of HK$159 million. The movement follows comments from former U.S. President Donald Trump, who stated that extremely severe strikes against Iran would be carried out within the next two to three weeks. The escalating U.S.-Iran conflict continues to reinforce the rationale for rising coal prices and has lifted the ceiling for potential price increases.

Public information shows that YANCOAL AUS is the largest pure-play coal producer in Australia, with its attributable saleable coal production accounting for 8.7% of Australia's total output in 2025. Huatai Securities indicated that expectations for rising Australian coal prices, driven by demand for coal substitution, are more optimistic than market consensus. The analysis suggests that while a global coal shortage may not materialize overall, due to the reliance of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan on high-calorific-value Australian coal and the relatively limited production flexibility in Australia, Australian coal prices may see the highest increases. It is projected that short-term prices could reach $349 per ton, with the full-year average for 2026 potentially falling back to $165 per ton. Both the extent of current price increases for Australian coal and the company's earnings flexibility in 2026 are expected to exceed market expectations.