According to information disclosed by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 27, Duan Yongping increased his stake in POP MART (HK9992) on May 25 through his H&H Fund. Consequently, Duan Yongping and his concert parties collectively hold 76.3716 million shares, corresponding to a market value of approximately HK$11.8 billion, representing a shareholding ratio of 5.69%. This makes Duan Yongping the second-largest shareholder of POP MART, following founder Wang Ning. Subsequently, POP MART's stock price surged for two consecutive days, accumulating a gain of 12%.
This has sparked market discussion on whether investors can simply replicate Duan Yongping's investment moves. While timely replication could yield profits, a closer examination of Duan Yongping's underlying investment logic reveals that such an outcome is not guaranteed. Ordinary investors find it difficult to achieve the same returns as Duan Yongping and face greater challenges in managing associated risks.
The first difficulty lies in the application of professional tools and capital management.
Duan Yongping's position in POP MART was not primarily built through direct purchases in the secondary market but centered on selling put options. This method is largely inaccessible to the vast majority of ordinary investors. Selling a put option is akin to committing to buy a specific number of shares at a predetermined price in the future. If the stock price remains stable or rises, the option need not be exercised, allowing Duan Yongping to earn the option premium. If the stock price falls below the strike price and the counterparty exercises the option, Duan Yongping must purchase the shares at the agreed price, which is cheaper than buying directly from the secondary market. After deducting the option premium, his cost basis is further reduced. Duan Yongping also employs a strategy of rolling over put options with different maturities and strike prices to continuously lower his average cost.
This set of operations requires solid derivative knowledge and extensive trading experience. Even Duan Yongping himself once made an operational error due to rule differences, mistakenly equating the trading rule of 200 shares per lot for Hong Kong stock options with the 100 shares per lot standard for U.S. stocks. This sufficiently illustrates the complexity of derivative trading rules and their low tolerance for error. Most ordinary investors struggle to understand the basic rules of options, and even if they do, they may lack the capability to execute such trades.
Furthermore, selling put options on a large scale requires sufficient standby capital to meet potential exercise demands. Duan Yongping, having decided to build a position in POP MART, had prepared ample funds to comfortably accept the shares. However, ordinary investors typically have limited capital. Such complex operations consume significant time and effort and are not cost-optimal for them.
The second difficulty is the deep understanding of corporate value and management.
Duan Yongping previously publicly stated that he did not understand POP MART when its stock price was above HK$200. The risks associated with the trendy toy sector—such as short product life cycles and high uncertainty in popularity—were significant, leading him to adopt a wait-and-see approach. This judgment, however, indicates he was already following POP MART and had developed some understanding of its investment value. On March 25 of this year, following POP MART's release of a strong annual report, its stock price experienced a significant correction due to market expectations of lower future growth rates, leading to a substantial decrease in valuation. While POP MART above HK$200 might have been expensive, POP MART around HK$100 presented better value. After the earnings report, Duan Yongping resumed in-depth research and publicly retracted his previous stance of "not investing" on March 30, fully turning bullish.
A greater advantage for Duan Yongping is his ability to interact closely with founder Wang Ning, gaining deep insights into the company's business philosophy, product strategy, and long-term vision. He gave Wang Ning the high praise that his "business acumen rivals that of Steve Jobs," aligning with the classic investment philosophy of "investing in people." Ordinary investors can only rely on secondary information like financial reports and analyst research to understand a company, unable to grasp its core competitive advantages or management characteristics. Lacking conviction during stock price fluctuations, they might buy after "copying the move" but could soon sell due to short-term paper losses or shrinking profits, finding it difficult to adhere to long-term value investing.
The third difficulty is mature portfolio diversification and risk management capability.
Duan Yongping's multi-billion Hong Kong dollar stake in POP MART might seem like a concentrated position, but within his overall investment portfolio, it is merely one of many holdings, accounting for only a single-digit percentage and not a core concentrated asset. Duan Yongping's investments are diversified, spanning both the U.S. and Chinese capital markets and covering different sectors like technology and consumer stocks. The correlation between U.S. and Chinese stock markets is inherently low. Similarly, the correlation between technology stocks like Apple and large investment institutions like Berkshire Hathaway is low, as is the correlation between traditional strong consumer brands like Kweichow Moutai and emerging self-indulgence consumer brands like POP MART.
This global, cross-sector diversification effectively smooths portfolio volatility. Even if POP MART experiences a significant short-term decline, gains from holdings in other markets and sectors can hedge the risk. The rise and fall of a single stock does not severely impact his overall assets, providing the confidence to hold POP MART for the long term. In contrast, most ordinary investors have limited capital and concentrated holdings. If they "copy the homework," they might only copy the POP MART or Kweichow Moutai position, almost impossible to replicate Duan Yongping's complete portfolio and, consequently, his profit model.
"Copying investment moves" has never been a guaranteed shortcut to profits. Actual returns are related to holding period, skill in using financial tools, and a full understanding of company value, while also depending on luck factors like overall market trends. For ordinary investors, they can learn from the investment thinking of seasoned investors and deeply understand their logic. However, only by building their own investment framework and making independent judgments on company value can they achieve long-term, stable returns.