The upcoming week is not about a simple choice between bullish or bearish sentiment; it is about the market determining the next major theme for trading.

For over a month, market focus has been intensely concentrated on two narratives: Will the situation in Iran escalate? Can the market continue to disregard the Federal Reserve? Next week, both of these stories may face a critical test.

The first hurdle is the Iran issue, which will determine the direction of oil prices. If an agreement is reached, will oil prices accelerate their decline? Could the typical correlations in global markets be disrupted on that day?

The second hurdle is the release of the U.S. May non-farm payrolls data. This is the first major economic report since speculation about interest rate hikes intensified. At that point, the market may revert to a "data-dependent" mode, which will determine whether it can continue to ignore the Federal Reserve's stance.