Citigroup has indicated that copper prices are poised to climb to $14,000 per ton over the next three months, driven by bullish momentum, although prices may peak this month unless new catalysts emerge.

Analysts, including Max Layton, stated in a research report that Citi maintains its forecast for the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price to average $13,000 per ton from the second to the fourth quarter.

Citi noted that market momentum, further potential for increased positioning, and a solid bullish rationale "are all expected to drive copper prices higher in the near term."

The bullish logic cited in the report includes dynamics related to U.S. arbitrage and tariffs, demand and growth expectations, constrained copper mine supply, and tail risks from currency depreciation. "We are not highly confident in copper prices at current levels; our base case is that any gains above $13,000 per ton will ultimately be reversed."

Citi believes this price level is sufficient to stimulate increased scrap copper supply, promote the use of substitutes, and encourage copper conservation, thereby achieving a balance between global copper supply and demand in the physical market by 2026.

The arbitrage sentiment between the LME and the COMEX has been a "core pillar" of the recent strength in copper prices, but this factor is susceptible to uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies.

Citi's base case expectation is that refined copper tariffs will not ultimately be implemented, or will be mitigated through exemptions granted to U.S. regional partners, such as Chile.