Goldman Sachs Upgrades PetroChina (00857) to "Buy" with Target Price of HKD 8.60

Stock News
10/24

Goldman Sachs has issued a report indicating a "Buy" rating for PetroChina (00857), with a target price of HKD 8.60 for its H shares and RMB 11.80 for its A shares (601857.SH). The report highlights that Liaohe Petrochemical's capacity accounts for 4% of PetroChina's refining capacity. Current sanctions may lead crude oil suppliers and shipping companies to cancel crude oil supply transactions, resulting in production disruptions. However, Goldman Sachs believes that the company can pivot to non-Western supply chains for crude oil procurement and increase imports of Russian crude oil to mitigate some of these impacts. Furthermore, PetroChina Hong Kong serves as a trade window for importing Russian crude oil; sanctions may complicate transactions dependent on the EU and financial intermediaries, insurance companies, or ship management companies. While the impact of sanctions on Russian crude oil imports remains uncertain, the company can maintain refining output by sourcing other grades of crude oil, thus alleviating operational disruptions. Assuming PetroChina adjusts its crude oil procurement strategy to alleviate production interruption effects, oil prices will continue to be a major factor influencing the group. Goldman Sachs estimates that, holding other conditions constant, a USD 10 change in Brent oil prices will lead to a corresponding 13% change in PetroChina's EBITDA. The firm suggests that if interruptions to Russian oil supply worsen, short-term oil prices could rise to the USD 70 range.

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