CICC has issued a research report forecasting that gross gaming revenue in February 2026 will reach MOP 19.1–19.4 billion, with average daily revenue estimated at MOP 671–682 million. This represents a year-on-year decline of 2–3% and a decrease of 24–35% compared to February 2019.

Due to the later timing of the 2026 Spring Festival, and based on comparable data, the report projects combined gross gaming revenue for January and February 2026 to total MOP 41.7–42.0 billion. This would reflect a year-on-year increase of 10–11%, though it would still be 16–17% lower than the combined revenue for the same period in 2019.

Key observations from CICC include the following. Industry consultants estimate that gross gaming revenue in Macau for the period up to February 2026 stands at approximately MOP 14.3 billion. During the core Spring Festival holiday period from February 16 to 22, average daily gaming revenue was around MOP 786 million.

Data from the Macau Government Tourism Office indicates that average daily visitor arrivals during the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, spanning February 15 to 23, increased by 9% year-on-year, recovering to 105% of the 2019 level. Average daily arrivals from mainland China rose 11% year-on-year, reaching 110% of the 2019 figure. Total visitor numbers peaked on the third day of the Lunar New Year, February 19.

According to industry consultant data, Macau's gaming revenue was relatively weak in the initial days of the holiday but strengthened significantly from the fourth to the sixth day, with average daily revenue reaching MOP 1.2–1.3 billion. This represents a 10–15% increase compared to the same period during the 2025 Spring Festival.

CICC notes that the trend in gross gaming revenue during this holiday slightly lagged behind the trend in visitor arrivals, which peaked earlier. Given that the 2026 Spring Festival holiday spanned nine days, longer than previous holidays, the firm anticipates that extended demand for the remainder of February may remain robust.

Market research by CICC suggests that, so far in February, the average daily rolling chip turnover for the VIP segment may have decreased by approximately 8–10% month-on-month, while mass market average daily gaming revenue may have fallen by about 10–12% month-on-month. The VIP win rate was around 2.6–2.9%, slightly below the theoretical average.

Potential risks include a slower-than-expected recovery in Macau's gaming industry, intensified competition within the gaming market, and a longer-than-anticipated ramp-up period for new casino resorts.