A recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York indicates that U.S. consumer expectations for future inflation have remained broadly stable, while confidence in the job market shows signs of divergence. Notably, the willingness to voluntarily leave a job has dropped to its lowest level on record, reflecting how labor market uncertainty is influencing household decisions.

According to the New York Fed's monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations, the median expectation for the inflation rate one year from now stands at 3%, slightly down from 3.1% in January. Meanwhile, expectations for inflation over the next three and five years both held steady at 3%, suggesting long-term inflation views remain anchored.

The survey was conducted between February 2 and February 28, meaning it does not capture any potential impact on consumer sentiment from recent energy price increases linked to conflict in the Middle East.

Regarding employment, the survey points to weakening consumer confidence in the labor market. Respondents reported a lower perceived probability of finding a new job within three months if they were to lose their current one. Furthermore, the expected likelihood of voluntarily quitting a job fell to just under 16%, the lowest level since the survey began in 2013. This suggests a growing number of workers are opting to remain in their current positions rather than seek new opportunities in the current environment.

Recent data has also indicated signs of cooling in the U.S. job market. Government figures showed the unemployment rate edged up to 4.4% in February, while non-farm payrolls declined by 92,000. Against this backdrop, several Fed officials have noted that multiple household surveys indicate rising consumer concern about the job market.

Despite these trends, the New York Fed survey also revealed some improvement in certain employment risk indicators. The mean perceived probability of losing one's job over the next year fell to 13.8%, the lowest since last November, indicating that while confidence has wavered, the overall perception of risk remains relatively stable.

Consumers also reported a slight improvement in their expectations for their own financial situations. The average perceived probability of being unable to make a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased to its lowest level since February 2024.

Financial markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady at its upcoming policy meeting in Washington next week. However, against the backdrop of a cooling labor market and shifting consumer confidence, the survey's findings are likely to serve as an important reference for policymakers assessing the economic outlook.