SpaceX closed at $143.69, up 1.55%.

Despite the modest daily gain, SPCX options flow revealed a commanding bearish bias, headlined by a $23.41 million deep in-the-money put combination concentrated at the 210 and 230 strikes. This overriding demand for downside exposure vastly exceeded a smaller $8.81 million bullish put sale at the 140 strike, suggesting that institutional positioning remains heavily skewed toward protection and speculative bearish conviction into the longer-dated expiry cycle.

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Options Indicators

SPCX’s implied volatility stands at 54.60%, and with an IV percentile of 75.83%, current option volatility is in the elevated range, indicating that options are priced expensively relative to their own recent history. At the same time, the IV/HV ratio of 0.56 suggests implied volatility is running below realized volatility, which points to the market not fully matching the magnitude of recent actual price movement despite the still-rich historical percentile backdrop.

The Call/Put volume ratio is 1.81.

Large Trades

A put-buy spread-style combination with a net debit of $23.41 million was the largest displayed trade, consisting of long 230.0 puts and long 210.0 puts expiring on 2026-09-18. Because both legs are buy puts, this is a same-direction put combination rather than a synthetic structure, and it represents a bearish directional bet aimed at capturing a sizable downside move. With SPCX referenced at 143.69, both strikes were already in the money, which makes the position an aggressive downside expression with substantial intrinsic value exposure as well as further profit potential if the underlying weakens materially. The large net debit signals that the trader was willing to pay significant premium upfront for downside participation rather than collect income, reinforcing the view that this was a conviction-driven bearish trade.

A short put sale worth $8.81 million was the second displayed large trade, involving the sale of 140.0 puts expiring on 2027-09-17. With the stock reference at 143.69, the strike was out of the money at execution, so this trade expresses a moderately bullish or at least supportive stance, most likely seeking premium income while leaving room for the stock to stay above 140.0 over time. Strategically, this type of trade suggests the seller is comfortable taking assignment at a lower effective entry level or simply expects the shares to remain resilient enough for the option to expire worthless. Overall, however, the bulk-order picture remains bearish: the dominant flow was led by a very large in-the-money put-buy combination, and while there was some premium-selling activity on the bullish side, it was not strong enough to offset the downside-leaning protection and speculative bearish positioning.

Strategy Reference

For premium sellers seeking a lower assignment probability against the dominant bearish flow, consider shorting the 115.0 or 110.0 put in the nearer monthly expiry, or if capital efficiency is a priority, deploy a bear put spread such as buying the 150.0 put and selling the 120.0 put to define risk without posting the full margin of a naked long put.