Abstract

MINISO Group Holding Limited will report quarterly results on August 28, 2026 post-Market; investors are watching revenue resilience, margin trajectory, and earnings quality as the company transitions from investment-driven gains to operating profit normalization.

Market Forecast

For this quarter, the current projection points to revenue of RMB 5.79 billion, up 19.54% year over year; estimated adjusted EPS is RMB 0.62, up 72.22% year over year; and estimated EBIT is RMB 763.86 million, up 4.00% year over year. Forecast gross profit margin and net profit margin were not indicated, while the emphasis is on whether earnings growth can be sustained on operating performance rather than non-operating gains. The main business remains anchored by the domestic MINISO brand, which delivered RMB 3.23 billion last quarter; sustained product launches and disciplined promotions are expected to support ticket size and traffic. The most promising segment is the overseas MINISO brand, which generated RMB 1.94 billion last quarter, with momentum underpinned by store openings and improving unit economics in several key markets; group-level growth was 28.49% year over year last quarter, and management commentary has highlighted overseas expansion as a key support to growth.

Last Quarter Review

MINISO Group Holding Limited reported revenue of RMB 5.69 billion, up 28.49% year over year, a gross profit margin of 43.32%, net profit attributable to equity holders of RMB 1.25 billion, a net profit margin of 21.99%, and adjusted EPS of RMB 0.45, down 4.25% year over year. Net profit surged quarter on quarter by 983.76%, reflecting the swing factor from fair-value-driven gains booked in the period alongside solid top-line performance. By business line, last quarter revenue comprised RMB 3.23 billion from MINISO Brand – Mainland China, RMB 1.94 billion from MINISO Brand – Overseas, RMB 514.49 million from TOP TOY, and RMB 0.50 million from other items; group revenue grew 28.49% year over year, with contributions supported by store expansion and steady same-store volume.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business: MINISO Brand – Mainland China

The domestic MINISO brand, at RMB 3.23 billion last quarter, remains the revenue core and the swing factor for this quarter’s print. The central questions are whether management sustains low-40s gross margin dynamics through a balanced product mix and how effectively operating expenses are controlled as traffic normalizes after promotional periods. Marketing cadence and rent-related costs are the near-term costs to watch; in the previous quarter, gross margin at 43.32% proved resilient, but leverage on selling and administrative expenses will determine the extent of EBIT growth, with last quarter’s EBIT of RMB 772.74 million up 0.40% year over year indicating limited operating leverage. This quarter’s sales drivers include the flow of new SKUs and co-branded IP rollouts, which typically stimulate basket size without requiring deep discounting. Management’s recent interim indication that first-half revenue grew by roughly low-20s percentages year over year supports the case that domestic demand is holding up, though discretionary categories remain sensitive to pricing and consumer sentiment. Store productivity will be scrutinized, particularly whether same-store momentum can offset seasonality, and whether initiatives to optimize product mix can keep gross profit in a comfortable range even as operating costs fluctuate. From a margin perspective, domestic procurement efficiencies and supply-chain stability are key to defending gross profits. If the company balances limited-time collaborations with evergreen household categories, it can protect margins while driving footfall. The market will also look for clearer separation between operating profitability and any non-operating gains to assess the sustainability of earnings momentum, especially given the prior quarter’s meaningful contribution from investment-related fair-value changes.

Most promising business: MINISO Brand – Overseas

The overseas business delivered RMB 1.94 billion last quarter and remains the most important structural growth pillar this quarter. The runway is anchored in store openings in North America, Southeast Asia, and other priority regions, where the concept continues to scale. Analysts have flagged that profitability recovery in certain markets could be slower than previously anticipated, but also noted improvement signs in the U.S. operation that may gradually ease the pace of margin decline; the combination suggests a steady growth profile with a progressive margin path. For this quarter, the central watch items include net store additions, average ticket trends, and any currency translation impact on reported revenue. Top-line growth is expected to outpace the group average over a multi-quarter horizon as new markets ramp, while mix improvements and higher sell-through of mid- to higher-margin SKUs can support gross margin stability. Execution on localized product selection and more efficient in-country logistics remains essential to converting top-line growth into EBIT expansion. While the channel and concept are scaling, cost discipline is likely to be uneven across markets at different stages of maturity. The key to upside surprise lies in whether newer regions can accelerate to breakeven and whether high-traffic flagship locations deliver enough throughput to absorb fixed costs. If operating momentum in North America and selected Asia-Pacific markets continues, the segment should remain the company’s most promising growth lever into the back half of the fiscal year.

What will move the stock this quarter

Earnings quality is likely to be the decisive driver. The prior quarter’s net profit jump was aided by non-operating gains, and the market will focus on whether adjusted EPS and EBIT can expand without a similar boost. The current-quarter projections—revenue of RMB 5.79 billion (up 19.54% year over year), EBIT of RMB 763.86 million (up 4.00% year over year), and adjusted EPS of RMB 0.62 (up 72.22% year over year)—frame expectations, but the credibility of the operating margin print will likely dictate the stock’s immediate reaction. Gross margin trajectory and opex control are the next most important levers. On the gross side, sustaining a margin envelope consistent with the low-40s seen last quarter would be encouraging, especially if accompanied by healthy sell-through of new IP collaborations without resorting to heavy discounting. On the opex side, the street will parse selling and marketing expenses, store-related costs, and any incremental logistics expense, particularly in light of commentary that operating-margin recovery could take longer than initially projected. Guidance and management commentary will also carry weight. Investors will assess the tone on second-half demand, overseas profitability ramp, and the extent to which any fair-value changes may recur or fade. Updates on investment-related gains or the equity-accounted contribution from investee companies will be monitored; however, a clean operating beat—demonstrating revenue flow-through to EBIT—would likely matter more for valuation than non-operating swings. Any remarks on promotional controversies, brand governance, and content review processes for licensed IP will also matter for sentiment, insofar as they speak to brand control and reputational risk containment.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish vs. bearish ratio: approximately 4:1, with the majority leaning bullish on the shares while acknowledging near-term margin and earnings-quality debates. Jefferies has reiterated a Buy view with a Hong Kong dollar target in the mid-40s range, emphasizing durable revenue growth supported by steady store additions and a robust cadence of product launches. The house’s constructive stance hinges on the thesis that the model can defend a low-40s gross margin framework while gradually rebuilding operating leverage, especially as overseas scale improves. In this framework, a print close to the forecast—RMB 5.79 billion revenue and RMB 763.86 million EBIT—would validate that the growth engine is intact and that operating profit can track revenue expansion with a lag. Nomura also maintains a Buy rating while trimming its price target to US dollars in the high teens, reflecting more cautious margin timelines rather than a structural change in the growth case. The firm’s analysis points to manageable headwinds in operating expenses and an improving U.S. footprint, which should curtail the pace of margin compression. From Nomura’s vantage, this quarter’s key signal will be resilience in adjusted EPS (estimated at RMB 0.62, up 72.22% year over year), as a beat would suggest that cost pressures are being offset by mix, ticket, and scale benefits. DBS Group Research underscores a similar narrative, keeping a Buy stance while cutting its target price to Hong Kong dollars in the mid-40s on the view that operating-margin recovery may arrive later than initially expected. The team highlights that improvement in the U.S. business is helping, but the timing of full margin normalization could be extended. For the upcoming release, DBS’s constructive take rests on the premise that revenue continues to compound near 20% year over year and that the company can demonstrate progress in decoupling reported earnings from non-operating fair-value swings. CICC maintains an “outperform industry” view while lowering its target price into the low-30s Hong Kong dollars range to incorporate slower-than-expected operating margin recovery and heightened investor scrutiny around capital allocation. The core of CICC’s constructive thesis is that the earnings base is supported by steady revenue expansion across domestic and overseas networks, and that improved cost discipline and procurement efficiencies can stabilize margins over subsequent quarters. The firm’s near-term watchpoints mirror the market’s: EBIT delivery versus the RMB 763.86 million estimate, the sustainability of low-40s gross margin, and clear commentary on the path to operating margin repair. Across this majority-bullish camp, the through-line is consistent: investors want to see operating momentum stand on its own, without reliance on fair-value changes, and they expect a steady cadence of revenue growth anchored by network expansion and product renewal. A print close to or modestly ahead of revenue and adjusted EPS estimates, paired with stable gross margin and a credible opex plan, would likely keep the bull case intact. Conversely, if EBIT underperforms the RMB 763.86 million projection or if the margin commentary implies renewed pressure in the back half, the valuation path could hinge more on medium-term overseas scaling than on near-term operating leverage. In sum, the majority view anticipates a constructive quarter for MINISO Group Holding Limited: revenue expansion near 20% year over year, adjusted EPS growth buoyed by scale and mix, and a measured but observable path toward operating margin stabilization, with the overseas segment continuing to serve as the company’s most promising growth engine.