Goldman Sachs has stated that the "long-anticipated global surplus in the crude oil market has started to manifest," based on high-frequency satellite data as well as official inventory data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the United States.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs, including Yulia Grigsby, noted in their report that crude oil inventories in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) have begun to rise, with an average daily increase of 340,000 barrels in commercial inventories this year, making up one-quarter of the total inventory increase. This figure is expected to rise to one-third by the end of 2025. Goldman Sachs forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will drop to $52 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2026, with fluctuations in Russian oil production posing a significant upside risk to this prediction (i.e., the risk of increased oil prices that could invalidate the forecast). Despite the bearish outlook, the pace of price declines may be gradual, as the impending inventory growth has already been reflected in current prices, and the robust refining margins for diesel continue to support demand.