Shanghai nickel futures rebounded by 1.52% in a single day to close at 136,490 yuan per tonne. However, dual inventory build-up signals—a rise of 786 tonnes on the LME and a sharp increase of 6,704 tonnes on the SHFE—simultaneously sounded alarms. With Indonesia temporarily freezing operations for miners that failed to submit RKABs and stainless steel production schedules declining, can nickel prices hold above 135,000 yuan per tonne?

Today's Market Focus Overview

Today's key topics in the nickel market centered on 'SHFE nickel rebound', 'dual inventory builds', 'Indonesian mining policy', 'stainless steel production schedules', 'nickel pig iron delivered prices', and 'nickel matte'. Among these, 'dual inventory builds' and 'Indonesian quotas' were the most discussed, reflecting deep market concern over nickel supply-demand balance.

Top Ten Market Developments

#1 | SHFE Nickel Futures Rebound 1.52% to Close at 136,490 Yuan/Tonne

The most active SHFE nickel contract opened at 134,120 yuan per tonne, closed at 136,490 yuan per tonne, and settled at 135,330 yuan per tonne today. It gained 2,050 yuan, a single-day increase of 1.52%. The Yangtze River spot price for #1 nickel averaged 136,550 yuan per tonne, up a slight 50 yuan, while plate nickel rose 500 yuan to 137,200 yuan per tonne, indicating a modest improvement in market sentiment.

#2 | LME Nickel Inventory Rises 786 Tonnes to 274.9K Tonnes

As of June 12, LME nickel stocks stood at 274,938 tonnes, an increase of 786 tonnes from the previous day. This ended a three-day streak of inventory drawdowns, primarily due to increased exports of Indonesian nickel pig iron and weak stainless steel consumption in Europe. The latest LME nickel price was $18,055 per tonne, up $265.

#3 | SHFE Nickel Inventory Soars 6,704 Tonnes to 94.4K Tonnes

As of June 12, weekly nickel inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached 94,375 tonnes, a significant increase of 6,704 tonnes from the previous week, representing a 7.6% gain. Inventories have now risen for four consecutive weeks, accumulating a total increase of 20,718 tonnes. This pattern of inventory build-up both domestically and internationally is significantly capping the upside potential for nickel prices.

#4 | Indonesia Temporarily Freezes Operations for Miners Failing to Submit 2026 RKABs

Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has temporarily frozen operations for mining companies that have not submitted their 2026 RKAB (Work Plan and Budget) applications. Major producers like Tsingshan are reducing nickel pig iron capacity. Additionally, an RKEF project on a small Indonesian island plans to convert a high-grade nickel pig iron production line to nickel matte in June, indicating ongoing supply-side disruptions in the mining sector.

#5 | Delivered Prices for High-Grade Nickel Pig Iron Hold Steady at 1,150-1,160 Yuan/Ni

This week, domestic delivered prices for high-grade nickel pig iron remained stable at 1,150-1,160 yuan per nickel unit. Prices in Jiangsu for 9-10% material were 1,150 yuan/Ni, in Inner Mongolia 9-10% at 1,150 yuan/Ni, and low-grade nickel pig iron (1.6-1.8%) in Shandong was 3,625 yuan per tonne. The proportion of nickel pig iron plants operating at a loss has expanded to 30%, prompting some smaller facilities to begin production cuts.

#6 | June Crude Steel Output for 40 Stainless Steel Mills Estimated at 2.766 Million Tonnes

Preliminary estimates suggest that crude steel production from 40 domestic stainless steel mills in June will be approximately 2.766 million tonnes, a month-on-month decrease of 8.7%. Expectations for reduced 300-series stainless steel output have lowered demand for nickel pig iron. Coupled with the commissioning of new Indonesian capacity, the nickel market's supply-demand balance is tilting towards surplus.

#7 | Nickel Sulfate Price Holds Steady at 35,500 Yuan/Tonne

The Yangtze River spot price for nickel sulfate held steady at 35,500 yuan per tonne today, with nickel chloride also unchanged at 40,000 yuan per tonne. Downstream ternary precursor manufacturers showed only moderate purchasing interest. June production schedules have seen a slight month-on-month decline, providing limited support for demand for nickel briquette dissolution.

#8 | LME Nickel Quoted at $17,790/T, SHFE/LME Ratio Holds at 7.67

As of 17:14, the latest three-month LME nickel price was $18,055 per tonne. The import arbitrage window remains closed, and nickel inventories in bonded zones continue to accumulate.

#9 | Indonesian Nickel Pig Iron Prices Steady at Main Ports Amid Tight Supply

According to Mysteel research, Indonesian high-grade nickel pig iron prices at main ports held steady on June 15, with resource circulation remaining tight. Inventories at major Chinese ports (such as Ningde, Yangjiang, and Tieshangang) continued to decline, sustaining the existing pattern of Indonesia-China nickel pig iron trade.

#10 | SHFE Nickel Open Interest Falls by 4,898 Lots, Indicating Strong Wait-and-See Sentiment

Open interest for the most active SHFE nickel contract stood at 120,248 lots today, a decrease of 4,898 lots from the previous day, a drop of 3.9%. The continued decline in open interest reflects increasing market divergence on the direction of nickel prices and a strong wait-and-see sentiment, as participants await further clarity on Indonesian mining policies and stainless steel production schedules.

Analyst Perspective

Analysts note that the SHFE nickel benchmark saw a modest rebound on June 15, driven by eased geopolitical tensions. However, the dual inventory build-up signals—a rise of 786 tonnes on the LME and a surge of 6,704 tonnes on the SHFE—have significantly capped the upside for nickel prices. Supply-side disruptions, including Indonesia's temporary operational freeze for miners without RKABs and capacity reductions by major producers like Tsingshan, are now in a tug-of-war with weak demand, evidenced by an expected 8.7% month-on-month decline in June stainless steel production. In the short term, the SHFE nickel benchmark is expected to fluctuate within the range of 133,000 to 138,000 yuan per tonne. Key factors to watch include the progress of Indonesian RKAB approvals, the actual implementation of June stainless steel production, and whether LME inventory drawdowns can resume.