Abstract
Costco Wholesale Corporation will report fiscal second-quarter results on March 5, 2026 Post Market; this preview synthesizes the latest market forecasts pointing to revenue of $68.99 billion (up 9.28% year over year) and adjusted EPS near $4.55 (up 10.84% year over year), with an in-depth review of comps, margins, digital momentum, and the most salient debates driving the shares this quarter.Market Forecast
Consensus forecasts point to a steady growth quarter for Costco Wholesale Corporation: revenue is projected at $68.99 billion, an increase of 9.28% year over year; EBIT is estimated at $2.60 billion, implying 11.14% year-over-year growth; and adjusted EPS is expected to land around $4.55, up 10.84% year over year. Margin guidance has not been explicitly provided in the forecast dataset; based on the company’s last reported quarter, investors will watch for ongoing discipline around gross margin and net margin alongside membership-fee leverage.The main business outlook appears solid: December net sales rose 8.50% year over year, January net sales climbed 9.30% year over year with comparable sales up 7.10%, and core non-foods categories accelerated to low-double-digit comparable growth in January, aided by jewelry strength as gold prices rose. The most promising segment near term is digitally enabled commerce, where comparable sales accelerated sharply to 33.10% in January (from 18.30% in December) and have been a consistent source of incremental traffic and ticket growth; for context, e-commerce revenue totaled nearly $20.00 billion in fiscal 2025, and the current cadence suggests a favorable setup into fiscal Q2.
Last Quarter Review
In the previous quarter, Costco Wholesale Corporation reported revenue of $67.31 billion (up 8.30% year over year), gross profit margin of 13.07%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $2.00 billion, net profit margin of 2.97%, and adjusted EPS of $4.50 (up 11.39% year over year). Sequentially, net profit declined by 23.33%, a typical seasonal pattern given quarter timing and spending mix, while underlying year-over-year growth stayed constructive across profit metrics.A key financial highlight was the company’s continued operating discipline that supported gross margin at 13.07% even as mix and pricing remained tightly managed to sustain traffic and engagement. On the business side, the revenue mix shows the core engine clearly: net sales contributed $65.98 billion (up roughly in line with total revenue growth), while membership fees delivered $1.33 billion of high-margin, recurring revenue that supports cost leadership and net margin resilience.
Current Quarter Outlook
Core warehouse sales and membership economics
The core warehouse business is entering fiscal Q2 with visible momentum in top-line indicators that matter for the P&L this quarter. The latest monthly updates show December net sales rose 8.50% year over year and January net sales advanced 9.30% year over year, with a 7.10% comparable-sales gain in January. Notably, reported January sales benefited from a 1.70% positive foreign-exchange impact; analysts have also suggested some transient storm-related noise, but the net effect did not overshadow the overall uptrend. Non-foods categories shifted higher to low-double-digit comparable growth in January, a reversal from mid-single-digits previously, consistent with a normalization in discretionary baskets and specific category tailwinds.Membership-fee revenue continues to underpin profitability. In the last quarter, membership fees totaled $1.33 billion, providing a recurring high-margin cushion that supports the chain’s everyday value proposition while helping absorb cost variability. The model’s ability to drive high renewal intent and wallet share is important in sustaining stable net profit margins through mix shifts. With EPS consensus at $4.55, numerical execution will hinge on Costco Wholesale Corporation capturing the revenue scale benefits from rising baskets and traffic, while keeping shrink and logistics costs in check and preserving the delicate balance between sharp pricing and gross margin stability. The forecast for 11.14% EBIT growth demonstrates confidence that expense discipline and membership economics can absorb promotional intensity and any FX or incremental labor cost pressures in the period.
Digitally enabled sales and omnichannel expansion
Digitally enabled sales remain the company’s most compelling near-term growth vector. In January, digitally enabled comparable sales accelerated to 33.10% from 18.30% in December, an inflection tied to robust jewelry demand amid rising gold prices and strong execution in site experience and fulfillment throughput. This acceleration comes on top of a multi-quarter effort to streamline discovery, search, and app functionality, which has improved conversion and engagement while protecting the curated SKU ethos that underpins in-warehouse productivity. While the e-commerce revenue base reached nearly $20.00 billion in fiscal 2025, the recent run-rate in comparable sales indicates the digital channel is again providing incremental comp lift and cross-pollinating traffic to the warehouse network.The international online delivery rollout should add to that momentum. Costco launched delivery sites in France and Spain supported by a strategic fulfillment partner, broadening access for members and increasing the addressable digital audience in Europe. The near-term implication is twofold: the omnichannel halo effect can lift comps in newer geographies as awareness grows, and the e-commerce platform can act as a customer acquisition mechanism that deepens membership engagement. This quarter, watch for management’s commentary on how category mix within online channels—especially high-ticket discretionary items like jewelry or appliances—interacts with gross margins. Even when digital carries a different margin profile, elevated volumes, curated SKU assortments, and deep vendor partnerships can help sustain total-company margin stability.
Key swing factors for the share price this quarter
Three datapoints will likely set the tone for how shares trade post-print: comparable sales cadence, margin trajectory, and the evolving consensus on valuation. On comps, the setup appears constructive: UBS expects fiscal Q2 comparable sales growth around 6.00%, ahead of a 5.70% consensus, while January’s update showed 7.10% comparable growth. Investors will parse the composition of comps—particularly the balance between fresh foods, sundries, and discretionary categories—because mix shifts can influence gross margin progression even when the topline is solid. A continuation of low-double-digit growth in non-foods categories would be read as a positive signal that discretionary budgets are normalizing at the warehouse club format.Margin trajectory will also be a focal point. The previous quarter’s gross margin was 13.07% and net margin was 2.97%; with EBIT forecast to rise 11.14% year over year, bulls are looking for evidence that operating leverage from top-line growth and improved supply-chain efficiencies can offset any incremental wage, logistics, or promotional costs. Membership-fee revenue remains an underappreciated buffer to net margin variability; this quarter’s fee performance and any color on renewal rates and Executive membership penetration will be closely watched as proxies for margin durability. FX could add noise to reported metrics, as it did in January, and category-specific price dynamics—such as gold-driven jewelry sales—can skew gross margins intra-quarter, so clarity on the sustainability of these tailwinds will matter for how investors underwrite the back half.
Finally, valuation sensitivity continues to shape short-term reactions. Multiple flagship institutions have reiterated Buy/Outperform stances with price targets around $1,000 to $1,200, reflecting confidence in the comp and margin algorithm; however, a couple of neutral stances with $1,000 targets underscore that the shares already discount strong execution. The post-report trade will likely hinge on whether revenue growth (9.28% YoY estimate) and adjusted EPS growth (10.84% YoY estimate) come with clean margin progression and stable core comps. If reported comps and EPS clear consensus with a constructive outlook on digitally enabled momentum and category mix, the bullish skew in institutional views suggests limited appetite to fade the print.
Analyst Opinions
Among notable institutions issuing fresh views since January 1, 2026, the balance is decisively positive: eight bullish opinions versus zero bearish, with two neutral stances. The bullish camp emphasizes supportive comparable sales trends, improving digital engagement, stable membership-fee economics, and an earnings algorithm that remains intact despite incremental cost variability.UBS sees fiscal Q2 as supportive for the bull case, projecting approximately 6.00% comparable sales (above a 5.70% consensus) and highlighting favorable points in the debate around sustaining comps and margin improvements; the firm maintained a Buy rating with a $1,205 price target and underscored that recent monthly updates do not challenge the core thesis. Evercore ISI reiterated an Outperform rating and raised its price target to $1,050, pointing to solid same-store sales through the winter months and engagement that can offset tactical margin pressure. Bernstein reaffirmed its Outperform rating and lifted its target to $1,155, while stressing the durability of the membership model and the potential for expense discipline to convert revenue growth into double-digit EBIT gains. Gordon Haskett raised its target twice, to $1,100 and later to $1,200, maintaining a Buy stance and focusing on the comp trajectory, the strengthening non-foods contribution, and the supportive digital inflection. JPMorgan maintained an Overweight rating with a $1,000 target, and Mizuho upgraded the shares to Outperform with a $1,000 target, both citing the favorable risk-reward into the print given the healthy cadence of monthly sales releases.
The common threads across these bullish views are consistent. First, revenue visibility is improving, as evidenced by December’s 8.50% year-over-year net sales growth and January’s 9.30% net sales growth alongside 7.10% comparable sales, lending support to the $68.99 billion revenue estimate for fiscal Q2, up 9.28% year over year. Second, digital momentum appears to be re-accelerating at a time when category mix is normalizing, exemplified by the 33.10% January surge in digitally enabled comparable sales and low-double-digit non-foods comparable growth, which together broaden the avenues for comp outperformance without depending on a single category. Third, membership-fee revenue remains a structural profit stabilizer—last quarter’s $1.33 billion underscores the importance of recurring, high-margin income—with institutions expecting this buffer to help maintain a roughly 3% net margin while enabling price sharpness to protect traffic.
In light of these drivers, the bullish consensus expects Costco Wholesale Corporation to deliver a clean fiscal Q2 that aligns with or exceeds forecasts for adjusted EPS of about $4.55 (up 10.84% year over year) and EBIT of $2.60 billion (up 11.14% year over year). The key validation points, according to the bullish institutions, will be confirmation that comparable sales remain in the mid-to-high single-digit zone, that rising digitally enabled volumes do not dilute total-company margins, and that management commentary on category mix and FX effects supports a constructive back-half setup. With eight of the ten most recent opinions skewing positive and none outright bearish, the institutional majority enters March 5, 2026 Post Market expecting a resilient performance supported by broad-based topline growth and a balanced approach to margin stewardship.