美國天然氣期貨週二走低，源於未來兩週天氣轉涼預期抑制燃料需求，市場情緒逆轉。紐約商品交易所八月交割主力合約下滑2.3美分或0.7%，收於每百萬英熱單位3.443美元，此前週一價格曾觸及七月以來峯值。

美國國家颶風中心警示，佛羅里達州東海岸熱帶系統可能在一週內增強爲熱帶氣旋，向西移入墨西哥灣。分析師指出，儘管風暴可能短暫中斷生產，但墨西哥灣離岸產量僅佔美國總輸出約2%；更常見的是風暴摧毀需求——斷電導致數百萬家庭和企業停用燃氣發電，並關閉液化天然氣出口工廠。

氣象學家預測，至少至七月末氣溫仍高於正常水平，但熱度不及先前預期。儘管今夏持續高溫，分析師預計未來數週能源企業將維持超額注入庫存；六月產量創紀錄後，七月有望再創新高，而四月以來液化天然氣出口流量低迷。當前庫存較五年（2020-2024）平均水平高出約6%，且盈餘料將擴大，但今年晚些時候出口回升或逐步消化過剩。

LSEG數據顯示，七月迄今美國本土48州平均產量升至每日1069億立方英尺，超越六月紀錄1064億立方英尺。LSEG預測，包括出口在內的需求將從本週1078億立方英尺降至下週1068億立方英尺，較前次展望下調。八大液化天然氣出口工廠平均流量升至每日158億立方英尺，部分工廠維護結束推動回升，但仍低於四月峯值160億立方英尺。

2023年美國超越澳大利亞和卡塔爾成爲全球最大液化天然氣供應國，俄烏衝突引發價格飆升驅動出口增長。歐洲基準荷蘭產權轉讓設施價格約每百萬英熱單位12美元，亞洲日韓基準爲13美元。

庫存與價格數據： Week ended Jul 11 Forecast Week ended Jul 4 Actual Year ago Jul 11 Five-year average Jul 11 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): +45 +53 +18 +41 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,051 3,006 3,208 2,874 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average +6.2% +6.1% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Last Year Prior Year Average 2024 Five-Year Average (2019-2023) Henry Hub NGc1 3.41 3.47 2.21 2.41 3.52 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 11.86 12.31 10.32 10.95 15.47 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 13.12 13.12 12.32 11.89 15.23 LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year Norm 30-Year Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 34 3 3 3 U.S. GFS CDDs 237 242 218 213 203 U.S. GFS TDDs 240 246 221 216 206 LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Last Year Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month U.S. Supply (bcfd) U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 106.5 105.8 105.2 103.3 97.8 U.S. Imports from Canada 8.2 7.9 7.7 N/A 7.8 U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Total U.S. Supply 114.7 113.7 112.9 N/A 105.7 U.S. Demand (bcfd) U.S. Exports to Canada 2.0 2.0 2.0 N/A 2.3 U.S. Exports to Mexico 7.0 6.6 6.5 N/A 6.4 U.S. LNG Export Feedgas 15.2 15.6 15.5 11.1 10.0 U.S. Commercial 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.7 U.S. Residential 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.5 U.S. Power Plant 45.2 46.0 45.2 49.0 48.1 U.S. Industrial 22.2 22.2 22.2 21.8 21.7 U.S. Plant Fuel 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.4 U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 3.3 U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 Total U.S. Consumption 82.9 83.7 82.9 86.4 86.9 Total U.S. Demand 107.1 107.8 106.8 N/A 99.2 N/A is Not Available U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast 2024 % of Normal Actual 2023 % of Normal Actual 2022 % of Normal Actual Apr-Sep 77 77 74 83 107 Jan-Jul 79 79 76 77 102 Oct-Sep 80 80 77 76 103 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA Week ended Jul 18 Week ended Jul 11 2024 2023 2022 Wind 5 7 11 10 11 Solar 7 7 5 4 3 Hydro 5 5 6 6 6 Other 1 1 1 2 2 Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0 Natural Gas 45 44 42 41 38 Coal 19 19 16 17 21 Nuclear 17 17 19 19 19 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) Hub Current Day Prior Day Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL 3.21 3.22 Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL 3.20 2.75 PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL 3.70 3.38 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL 2.74 2.58 Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL 3.11 2.98 Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL 7.76 3.57 SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL 3.94 3.76 Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL 1.63 1.47 AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL 0.67 0.76 洲際交易所美國電力次日價格（美元/兆瓦時） Hub Current Day Prior Day New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX 126.65 76.50 PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX 78.03 66.86 Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX 58.68 57.15 Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX 51.67 53.58 SP-15 W-SP15-IDX 36.45 38.49