Is the U.S. Treasury Secretly Fueling the Gold Rally?

Deep News
08/21

Charlie Morris, the founder and chief investment officer of ByteTree, believes international gold prices have been climbing steadily because the U.S. Treasury is effectively conducting multiple large-scale quantitative easing operations, which could pave the way for even bigger gains in the future.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s latest move involves doubling the size of long-term Treasury purchases, a strategy aimed at keeping government borrowing costs low. With U.S. government debt now reaching $40 trillion, the total global stock of above-ground gold has grown in tandem with outstanding U.S. debt for the past century.

The value of gold relative to U.S. debt has been exceptionally high during the Great Depression, the inflation crisis of the 1970s, the credit crisis, and the current period. Morris points out that the problem with this approach is the relatively limited supply of long-term bonds compared to short-term ones. While printing money to repurchase debt could lower long-term yields in the short run, sustaining those yields would require the process to continue indefinitely.

Given that the U.S. government's annual debt sources include deficits, interest payments, and refinancing maturing short-term bonds, the desire to maintain low interest rates is understandable. Morris notes this is also a key reason why central banks worldwide are purchasing gold. If central banks reject U.S. Treasuries, what alternatives are large, highly liquid, and capable of storing long-term value while having limited supply? All roads ultimately point to gold.

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