The global shortage of memory chips is projected to persist until 2027, placing significant strain on the market for lower-end digital devices. Independent manufacturers of phones and laptops are being forced to redesign their products, carefully inspect incoming shipments for authenticity, and pass rising costs along to end consumers.

According to three company executives, the primary bottleneck is supply availability rather than pricing. "If you can't secure a supply allocation, you're effectively out of the game," said Raymond van Eck, CEO of Dutch repairable phone maker Fairphone. The head of memory chip producer SK Hynix stated in July that, from a supply perspective, 2027 would be the most severe year the industry has ever seen, with demand expected to outpace capacity well into the 2030s.

Market research firm Counterpoint projected in June that, due to rising memory chip costs making entry-level phone production unprofitable, global smartphone shipments would decline by 13.9% this year to 1.08 billion units, marking the largest annual drop on record. Meanwhile, TrendForce estimates that contract prices for traditional DRAM will increase by 13-18% this quarter, a notable deceleration following a massive 93-98% surge in the first quarter.

Finnish phone maker Jolla, founded by former Nokia engineers, reports that its combined storage and DRAM package pricing hit a peak in late March and has remained stable since. This outcome contrasts sharply with earlier forecasts made in the spring, when the market anticipated prices would double again by autumn. "For now, we are certainly relieved with this result," said CEO Sami Pienimäki. He believes supply conditions for memory chips are unlikely to normalize until 2028.

Nirav Patel, CEO of US-based repairable laptop manufacturer Framework, noted that the severe supply-demand imbalance became apparent as early as the end of last year. This situation has triggered aggressive hoarding behavior: "Companies are racing against the clock to lock in as much supply and build up inventories as possible," which in turn has exacerbated the shortage. Framework, lacking the financial capacity to stockpile large volumes, has been forced to place non-cancellable orders with unknown final prices, delivery timelines, and quantities.

In response, Jolla has developed two motherboard versions to maintain flexibility, allowing it to switch between integrated chip packages and discrete components. Framework designed memory as a modular feature from the product's inception, enabling users to install recycled memory units salvaged from older devices. Jolla conducts pressure tests on every incoming batch of samples to verify that chips are brand new, guarding against refurbished parts being sold as fresh inventory. Pienimäki explained that when market prices spike, suppliers dealing in refurbished chips tend to surface.

Van Eck pointed out that for phones priced around $400 (approximately 2,691 RMB at current exchange rates), memory chips can account for nearly 60% of the total bill of materials. The strategies for passing on costs vary among manufacturers: Framework adjusts its end-product prices rapidly in response to cost fluctuations, Jolla has introduced paid memory upgrade options, and Fairphone has chosen not to raise its product prices.