New York Forex: Dollar Weakens as ADP Report Signals Warning for US Labor Market

Deep News
2025/11/19

The US dollar weakened on Tuesday as ADP Research data indicated a loss of momentum in the labor market in mid-October. The Canadian dollar outperformed other G-10 currencies against the greenback.

The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by 0.1%.

"I believe this reflects stabilizing market risk sentiment," said Yusuke Miyairi, a forex strategist at Nomura, commenting on the dollar's movement. "While the ADP data appears 'decent' on the surface, interpretations are highly debatable when considering revisions."

Goldman Sachs strategists Dominic Wilson and Kamakshya Trivedi noted, "We expect the dollar's currently elevated valuation to erode as macroeconomic and market performance becomes less stellar, leaving room for further declines." They anticipate a "narrower" depreciation range in the future.

Analysts at Franklin Templeton Institute also project continued dollar weakness next year.

They cited potential US rate cuts as one reason, alongside "shifts in global portfolio flows reflecting more attractive equity and fixed-income opportunities outside the US."

"A weaker dollar could push Eurozone inflation below target, prompting further ECB rate cuts," they added.

The euro/dollar pair dipped slightly to 1.1587.

Meanwhile, the dollar/yen rose 0.2% to 155.50. As the yen weakened past 155 against the dollar, Japanese Finance Minister Sakura Kayama intensified warnings against excessive depreciation.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda assured Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi that the central bank is gradually reducing its accommodative support for the economy, signaling a firm commitment to cautious rate hikes.

The dollar/Canadian dollar fell 0.5% to 1.3979.

"Last night’s passage of the Carney government’s budget in parliament eliminates the possibility of a winter election," wrote Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret of Scotiabank, citing this as one factor supporting the Canadian dollar on Tuesday.

The Australian dollar gained 0.3% to 0.6515 against the greenback. The latest Reserve Bank of Australia meeting minutes revealed the central bank remains cautious and data-dependent.

The pound/dollar pair remained flat near 1.3156 during the session.

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