On August 15th, gold prices (XAU/USD) posted a modest rebound during Friday's Asian trading session, recovering some of the previous day's losses, though bullish momentum remained limited. The dollar's rally following strong U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data lacked sustainability, with investors widely expecting the Federal Reserve to restart its rate-cutting cycle in September, providing support for gold.

Daily chart analysis shows that gold encountered significant resistance near the 100-hour moving average (approximately $2,355), with multiple rebounds failing to break through this level, indicating persistent short-term selling pressure. If prices break above this level, they may test the $2,375 and $2,400 thresholds. However, a break below $2,330 support could trigger accelerated downside movement, potentially targeting $2,300 or even lower levels. From a technical indicator perspective, daily oscillations lean bearish, with the short-term trend still favoring downward movement.

The current gold rebound appears more like a technical correction rather than a trend reversal. Against the backdrop of insufficient sustained dollar buying and stable Fed rate cut expectations, gold prices may maintain range-bound trading in the near term. However, if market risk sentiment further improves, gold's safe-haven appeal could continue to weaken. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the $2,330 support level, as a break below could quickly open downside space.

On Friday, international crude oil prices rose modestly to weekly highs, supported by multiple factors. Brent crude futures gained 0.2% to $67.00 per barrel, while U.S. WTI crude futures similarly advanced 0.2% to $64.10 per barrel. The primary market driver was geopolitical risk. U.S. President Trump warned of "consequences" if Russia obstructs Ukraine peace agreements, heightening market concerns about crude supply tensions.

From the U.S. crude daily chart perspective, prices have broken above the upper boundary of the short-term consolidation range and established themselves above the 20-day moving average, strengthening short-term bullish momentum. The MACD indicator's fast line crossed above the slow line forming a golden cross, suggesting a high probability of continued upward trends. The RSI indicator approaches the 60 level, indicating further upside potential. If prices can effectively break through the $64.50 resistance level, the next target may challenge $65.30. Downside support is noted at $63.20, with a break potentially leading to a retest of the $62.50 area.

From the current market structure perspective, geopolitical risks combined with positive economic data have jointly driven oil prices higher, though the shadow of high U.S. interest rate prospects cannot be ignored. In the near term, oil prices may maintain elevated oscillations, with specific direction still dependent on developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation and changes in major economies' macroeconomic data.