Key Takeaways: Neutral Outlook

Cold storage inventory drawdowns have notably decelerated. Most remaining stock is concentrated in the northern Shaanxi and Shandong production areas, with the overall volume of remaining fruit posing limited pressure. However, weak end-consumer demand is suppressing the rate of inventory reduction. Since the majority of stored fruit is of lower quality, prices are expected to remain in a low range.

Early-season bagged Gala apples are now entering the market. Their opening prices are lower than last year, and the overall supply volume is limited. It is expected that bag removal in the northern Shaanxi production areas will begin after the recent rainfall subsides.

Price Performance: Neutral

In the Qixia region, first and second-grade 80# bagged apples are priced at 3.2 yuan per jin. The futures market is trading in a sideways manner.

Supply: Slightly Bearish

Nationwide bagging estimates indicate a 10-15% increase in volume compared to 2025, marking this as a "big year" in the apple alternate-bearing cycle. The consensus in the market is for an overall increase in global production. Currently, many areas in Shaanxi are experiencing continuous rainfall, and most orchards in the Yan'an region have not yet begun bag removal.

Demand: Neutral

The remaining apple volume in national cold storage is 501,800 tons, with the pace of inventory drawdown slowing. Shandong still has 408,300 tons in storage, while the western production areas are nearly cleared. The price spread between apples and competing fruits remains high, sustaining substitution pressure. Wholesale market arrivals have decreased compared to last week, and end-consumer demand is average.

Costs: Slightly Bullish

The acquisition cost for high-quality stored fruit was high, leading to losses for some traders.

Exports: Neutral

In June 2026, China imported 27,634 tons of apples and exported 54,888 tons. Exports are primarily directed to traditional markets in Southeast Asia, Russia, and other regions, maintaining a stable volume.

Apple Spot Price Details

The pace of inventory drawdown from cold storage in Shandong is slowing. Current prices: In the Penglai production area, first and second-grade 75# apples from farmers are quoted at 1.8-3.0 yuan per jin, while 80# first and second-grade are at 2.6-3.8 yuan per jin. There is virtually no trading for third-grade fruit. In Qixia, late-season Fuji 80# first and second-grade red-striped fruit is priced at 2.5-3.8 yuan per jin, and 80# farmer-grade bulk fruit is at 1.3-2.0 yuan per jin.

Regarding the new season apples in Shaanxi, early-season bagged Gala apples in the Weinan and Xianyang production areas have begun limited trading, with prices lower than last year. Continuous rainfall is affecting many areas of Shaanxi, and the Yan'an production area is largely yet to begin bag removal. In Luochuan, the transaction price for 70#+ semi-commercial apples from traders in cold storage is between 3.0 and 3.8 yuan per jin, with a mainstream price of 3.4-3.5 yuan per jin. The mainstream transaction price for 80#+ semi-commercial apples is around 3.8-4.2 yuan per jin, with prices based on quality. In the Xue Lu Town production area of Qian County, Xianyang, the mainstream transaction price for early-season Red Snick 70#+ apples is 2.4-3 yuan per jin. Early-season Gala 70#+ apples are trading at 2.3-2.4 yuan per jin, with high-quality fruit at 2.8-3 yuan per jin.

Apple Futures Market (August 7)

The AP10 contract closed at 7,792 yuan per ton. The spot basis for the October contract was -1,292 yuan per ton, which is 35 yuan per ton stronger than the previous week. Data source: Ganglian, ZJTFFutures Research Institute.

Apple Basis and Monthly Spreads

Supply: Production and Cold Storage Inventory

Cold storage inventory continues to decline. As of the week ending August 7, the remaining apple volume in national cold storage was 501,800 tons (a decrease of 49,600 tons from the previous week). Of this, Shandong held 408,300 tons and Shaanxi held 67,700 tons. The rate of inventory outflow has slowed compared to the previous week.

Planted Area and Production

In 2025, China's apple planted area was 1,744,840 hectares, producing 34.3132 million tons (a year-on-year decrease of 6.0%). According to bagging estimates from our agricultural products data, national apple production in 2026 is projected to be approximately 40.6193 million tons, representing an 8.71% year-on-year increase from the 2025 bagging estimate.

Demand: Cold Storage Shipments and Substitutes

In the week ending August 7, national apple cold storage shipments totaled 49,600 tons. Cumulative shipments for the 2025/26 season reached 7.1638 million tons, compared to 8.1101 million tons in the same period last year. Shipments from Shandong and Shaanxi production areas combined were 36,800 tons.

Apple Arrivals in Southern China Markets (Week of August 7)

In the Cailong market, arrivals were 15.2 trucks (down from 16.4 last week). In Jiangmen, arrivals were 8.4 trucks (down from 9 last week). In Xiaqiao, arrivals were 10.6 trucks (down from 11.8 last week).

Wholesale Prices of Six Fruits Monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture (Week of August 7)

Ju Feng grape wholesale price was 11.99 yuan/kg (a week-on-week decrease of 3.3%). Fuji apple wholesale price was 8.9 yuan/kg (a week-on-week increase of 1%). Banana wholesale price was 5.36 yuan/kg (a week-on-week increase of 1.1%). Yali pear wholesale price was 5.39 yuan/kg (a week-on-week increase of 1.1%). Watermelon wholesale price was 2.76 yuan/kg (a week-on-week decrease of 1.4%). Pineapple wholesale price was 7.26 yuan/kg (a week-on-week decrease of 0.7%).

Fruit Price Ratios

For the week ending July 31, the apple-to-banana price ratio was 1.662 (vs. 1.658 the previous week), and the apple-to-Yali pear ratio was 1.653 (vs. 1.655 the previous week). For the week ending August 7, the apple-to-banana ratio was 1.66 (vs. 1.662 the previous week), and the apple-to-Yali pear ratio was 1.65 (vs. 1.653 the previous week).

Apple Imports and Exports

In June 2026, China imported 27,634 tons of apples and exported 54,888 tons. The primary export variety is Red Fuji, with traditional export markets including Southeast Asia, Russia, South Asia, and some European countries.