As of Friday afternoon, the probability on the Kalshi prediction market for when maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal was below 50%.

The likelihood of normal transit through the Strait of Hormuz resuming before July 2027 has plummeted from nearly 70% to 47% over the past two days. This decline follows the 13th consecutive night of U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets, after President Trump told Axios on Thursday that he would launch further "major strikes" against Iran.

Similarly, the probability of navigation resuming within this year stands at 38%, while the chance of regular shipping returning by April 2027 is only 48%, marginally higher. Kalshi's event contracts will be settled based on whether the seven-day moving average of vessel transits exceeds 60, using data verified by the IMF's Portwatch.

According to prediction markets, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz may take 12 months or longer to return to normal

Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi group has claimed attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, adding a new "dimension" to the timeline for the strait's reopening, according to Matt Smith, head of commodities research at Kpler.

"We are pushing the recovery of navigation out to next year," he said.

In a Truth Social post on Thursday, Trump stated he would hold Iran responsible if the Houthis launched more attacks.

On Friday, media reports cited three Pakistani sources saying that Pakistan is facilitating peace talks between the United States and Iran.

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Editor-in-charge: Zhang Jun, SF065