WTI crude prices gave back some of the previous day's modest gains during Asian trading on Thursday, hovering near the $91.60 level. Recent price action in the oil market has been clearly driven by a combination of geopolitical developments and supply expectations. On one hand, signals of de-escalation from US-Iran talks have boosted expectations for a potential supply recovery; on the other hand, the talks remain highly uncertain and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz have not been fully resolved, leaving a significant risk premium embedded in crude prices.

US and Iranian representatives have maintained contact during the recent United Nations General Assembly session, with Washington previously describing the discussions as somewhat constructive. However, no concrete agreement capable of materially shifting the energy supply landscape has yet emerged. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated during his UN General Assembly address that Iran will not abandon its position under pressure, while still acknowledging the role of diplomatic channels. Meanwhile, Tehran's stance on passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains firm, suggesting that even if diplomatic contact continues, the pace of any recovery in oil shipments will remain uncertain.

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be one of the most critical supply risk variables in the crude market. Market attention has shifted from "whether new supply disruptions will occur" to "how quickly existing shipping constraints can be eased." If US-Iran negotiations yield substantive progress and maritime transport gradually resumes, the accumulated geopolitical risk premium could further fade. Conversely, if talks stall once again, crude prices may regain support from safe-haven flows and supply concerns.

Some signs of supply improvement have already emerged on the supply side. Saudi Arabia has recently restarted its East-West pipeline, which can divert a portion of crude around the Strait of Hormuz to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea coast. Reports indicate the pipeline is operational again but at a relatively low throughput level. A full restoration to its design capacity of approximately 7 million barrels per day could take several weeks. This means Saudi supply recovery can ease some market pressure, but it is not yet sufficient to fully offset the shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz.

US energy policy is also beginning to impact refined product supplies. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that the administration is working with domestic refiners on a voluntary basis to reduce diesel exports, aiming to lessen the impact of tight overseas supply on the domestic energy market. If this initiative continues, it could further alter US refined product inventories, refinery margins, and global diesel trade flows, indirectly influencing crude demand expectations.

From a market sentiment perspective, investors are currently highly sensitive to every piece of US-Iran negotiation news. According to TD Securities, as speculative crude positioning rises further, oil prices become more responsive to intraday headlines and policy signals. In the absence of a clear agreement and concrete supply recovery data, the market is more prone to a pattern of "prices rising on headlines and quickly giving back gains when supply improves." Therefore, the recent resilience in WTI prices does not fully reflect a fundamental shift back to strength; some of the swings stem from rapid changes in the geopolitical risk premium.

It is worth noting that oil prices have retreated notably from the highs seen after breaking above $100. WTI briefly fell below $90 on the restart of the Saudi pipeline and supply recovery expectations, before climbing back above that level, indicating that this round-number threshold has become a key battleground for bulls and bears. In this context, investors need to closely monitor whether verifiable and substantive progress emerges from the US-Iran talks, changes in vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz, and the pace of Saudi pipeline restoration. Meanwhile, US diesel export policy and inventory data could also become new variables influencing short-term price swings.

On the daily WTI chart, after the rapid decline from above $100, prices are currently in a low-level consolidation phase, with the short-term trend shifting from a strong uptrend to a corrective structure following the high-level pullback. The $90 area is a key psychological support zone. If prices can hold this level and reclaim the $93-$95 range, it would signal that bulls are attempting to repair the recent losses. Further resistance lies in the $97-$100 zone, and a renewed break above $100 would suggest the geopolitical risk premium could once again escalate quickly. Conversely, if WTI decisively breaks below $90, the next downside target could be the $87-$88 region.

On momentum indicators, the short-term oversold pressure has eased somewhat after the earlier sharp decline, but the overall rebound strength still depends on whether prices can form a consistent pattern of higher lows and higher highs. On the 4-hour chart, WTI is currently oscillating around the $90 level, with a weak short-term structure but no clear confirmation of a new one-way downtrend. If prices can reclaim the $92-$93 zone and surpass the recent rebound high, the short-term outlook could improve, with a potential test of the $95 area. If the rebound is rejected around $92, the market is likely to remain in weak consolidation. On technical indicators, short-term momentum is attempting to recover, but no clear trend reversal signal has emerged. Therefore, the current focus is on the breakout direction of support at $90 and resistance near $93. A loss of $90 would raise the risk of a pullback toward $88 or lower, while a convincing break above $93 would significantly ease short-term downside pressure.

In summary, the WTI market is currently in a repricing phase between a declining geopolitical risk premium and supply recovery expectations. If US-Iran talks yield substantive progress, combined with a gradual restoration of the Saudi pipeline, the previously accumulated risk premium could continue to compress. However, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has not fully resumed, leaving considerable uncertainty on the supply side. In the near term, $90 is a key level for gauging market strength, and whether prices can reclaim $93 will determine the upside potential, while a break below $90 could open the door to further downside. Investors should remain alert to the potential for sharp price swings driven by negotiation headlines, shipping data, and supply recovery developments.