A research report indicates that as domestic motorcycle companies' R&D capabilities and product quality control continue to strengthen, the gap between domestic and global leading motorcycle companies in terms of products and technology has significantly narrowed. Leveraging China's manufacturing cost-effectiveness advantages and continuously improving brand reputation, domestic motorcycle exports (especially large-displacement motorcycle exports) are expected to maintain strong momentum, with leading domestic motorcycle companies having substantial growth potential.

Key focus companies include: Chunfeng Power (603129.SH), Longxin General (603766.SH), and Qianjiang Motorcycle (000913.SZ). Worth monitoring: Great Wall Motor Company Limited (601633.SH, 02333) high-end brand - Soul Motor.

**Global motorcycle sales steady with growth, exceeding 60 million units in 2024.** Europe (excluding Turkey) + United States + Australia represent the main global large-displacement motorcycle markets, with large-displacement sales penetration rates averaging over 60%. Southeast Asia + India constitute the largest overseas motorcycle market, with combined market size exceeding 30 million units, primarily consisting of low-end small-displacement commuter motorcycles. Latin America + Mexico are major export regions for Chinese motorcycle companies, mainly featuring low-end commuter vehicles. Recent years have seen rapid motorcycle sales growth with rising large-displacement motorcycle penetration rates. African motorcycle sales are around 2 million units, primarily concentrated in West Africa.

**Japanese + Indian + Chinese motorcycle companies dominate the global motorcycle market, with European and American brands focusing on large-displacement vehicles.** From the perspective of major global motorcycle players: 1) The four major Japanese companies have long development histories with rich technological and channel accumulation, offering products from low-end small-displacement to high-end sports bikes, maintaining leading global positions; 2) Indian manufacturers mainly concentrate on low-end small-displacement markets, holding significant market shares in India and Africa; 3) Chinese manufacturers Haojue and Longxin rank in the global top 10 by market share, but current sales mainly concentrate on low-end commuter models, with domestic brand CR3 (Chunfeng, Longxin, Qianjiang) gradually breaking through in high-end large-displacement models; 4) European and American brands primarily focus on high-end large-displacement markets with relatively low overall market shares.

**Domestic motorcycle demand declining overall, but large-displacement motorcycles show significant growth potential.** Domestic motorcycle sales declined consecutively in 2023-2024, reaching 8.91 million units in 2024, down 16.6% year-over-year. However, large-displacement motorcycle demand grew against the trend, with sales increasing from approximately 140,000 units in 2020 to 400,000 units in 2024, achieving a CAGR of 30%.

Comparing with Japan, which shares similar East Asian cultural background, China's current large-displacement motorcycle market development stage resembles Japan in the 1980s. From 1980-1985, Japan's large-displacement motorcycle sales penetration rate increased from 4.1% to 6.9%, with peak sales per 10,000 people reaching approximately 12.4 units, 4x China's current level (China's 2024 figure: approximately 2.8 units). Peak ownership per 10,000 people reached 64 units, also about 4x China's current level, indicating substantial growth potential for China's domestic large-displacement market.

**Exports contribute significant incremental sales for domestic motorcycle companies, with broad overseas expansion opportunities for large-displacement motorcycles.** From 2020-2024, China's motorcycle export sales increased from 7.0906 million units to 11.0161 million units, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.64%. Export proportion of total sales rose from 41.5% to 55.3%, making exports an important growth engine for Chinese motorcycle sales.

Currently, Chinese motorcycle companies hold less than 10% market share in overseas large-displacement motorcycle markets, indicating broad expansion opportunities. According to calculations, major overseas regions had combined large-displacement motorcycle sales of approximately 4 million units in 2024. It is projected that domestic (internal sales, neutral scenario)/overseas large-displacement sales will reach 700,000 units/4.46 million units respectively by 2028. Under neutral scenarios, Chinese motorcycle companies are expected to export nearly 900,000 large-displacement motorcycles by 2028, with large-displacement motorcycle export sales CAGR of approximately 25.5% from 2024-2028.

**Risk Warning:** Tariff policy risks, large-displacement motorcycle penetration rate increases falling short of expectations, motorcycle company overseas expansion progress falling short of expectations.