Prediction markets have become a way to bet on everything from politics to markets to how many times Tesla CEO Elon Musk will tweet over a given period.

Investors can bet on a Tesla-SpaceX merger, too.

Currently, Polymarket’s odds on that megamerger being announced by June 30 are 17%. That means someone can pay 17 cents for the bet, and if the merger is announced, the payout is $1. If the merger isn’t announced, the bettor loses 17 cents.

Polymarket has a data partnership with Dow Jones, the publisher of Barron’s.

The idea of Musk combining his tech empire into an AI conglomerate has picked up steam in recent months. In November, Tesla shareholders expressed a desire for the EV maker to invest in xAI, and Tesla did so, announcing a $2 billion stake in January. Then, of course, SpaceX acquired xAI earlier this week ahead of its planned midyear initial public offering. SpaceX intends to use the money to accelerate a space-based AI data center business.

There are synergies between the three. All of the companies are working on AI. The xAI Grok chatbot competes with OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Alphabet’s Gemini. Tesla is working on physical AI that interacts with the world, including robo-taxis and robots. SpaceX computers in space could be a low-cost way to carry out all the computing and training.

Still, a SpaceX IPO looks far more likely than a SpaceX-Tesla merger. For starters, SpaceX has a plan for the capital, and the IPO process is underway.

Maybe the better bet is 83 cents on no merger.

Maybe investors shouldn’t trust the odds, yet. As of Thursday morning, about $56,000 had been bet on the deal. A tiny sum in the world of financial markets.

Even if they don’t bet, investors can use Polymarket to see how sentiment is shifting on Tesla or many other topics.

Tesla stock was down 2.2% to $397.21 on Thursday, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average both fell about 1.2%. Tesla shares haven’t closed below $400 since late November.

Shares fell 3.8% on Wednesday on a tough day for technology. The Nasdaq Composite and Nvidia were down 1.5% and 3.4%, respectively.