Pre-Market: Nasdaq Futures Fall 0.76%, Nvidia Drops 7%, Six Fed Officials to Speak

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Global AI trades were hit hard again on Thursday. The leadership crisis surrounding Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang continued to escalate, quickly triggering a global selloff in technology stocks, with the AI supply chain coming under pressure from Wall Street to Asian markets.

Just as investors had begun to regain optimism about the AI sector, this sudden management turmoil once again undermined market confidence in a tech stock rebound. As of press time, Dow futures were up 0.07%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.39%, and Nasdaq futures were down 0.76%. Nvidia shares fell 7% in pre-market trading. Reports earlier indicated that the company's board is currently discussing Jensen Huang's future. Global technology stocks broadly declined. In Europe, the technology sector underperformed as capital rotated into consumer-related stocks, pushing the Stoxx Europe 600 higher. In Asia, South Korea's KOSPI fell 0.6% and Taiwan's weighted index dropped 2.6%. However, not all tech stocks suffered selling pressure. Nvidia competitors Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom rose as investors bet these companies could seize market share from Nvidia. Samsung Electronics also gained in Seoul trading.

Nvidia Management Turmoil Could Disrupt AI Trades

Nvidia's management turmoil could further disrupt AI trades. AI-related stocks had previously been sold off on concerns about tighter US regulation, and the market had only recently begun to recover. Jensen Huang has been a highly influential business negotiator, using Nvidia's resources to invest across the AI industry, and is also one of the most iconic promoters of artificial intelligence technology. Joe Gilbert of Integrity Asset Management said: "This is undoubtedly negative news for Nvidia and the entire AI ecosystem. Jensen Huang is not only the face of the AI industry, but could even be described as the architect of AI infrastructure. Replicating his vision will be very difficult, if not nearly impossible." Garfield Reynolds, head of Bloomberg Markets Live team, said: "The expanding storm around Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang could deal an even more severe blow to the entire AI ecosystem, especially at a time when the market has just begun to build confidence in a sustained rebound. Nvidia sits at the core of the entire industry's financing system, so the risks posed by a sudden management change go far beyond Nvidia itself."

The sharp market swings highlight clear divisions among investors over the outlook for AI trades. With Democrats securing a major victory in the US midterm elections, concerns that data center construction could slow have intensified. However, some investors believe the recent tech stock pullback has instead created a buying opportunity. Tom Hulick, CEO of Strategy Asset Managers, said: "For AI companies, this is still a very good period. Retail investors and algorithmic trading can indeed trigger obvious chain reactions, but we have not seen any slowdown in AI capital expenditure." He added: "This Nasdaq correction will likely provide investors with an opportunity to buy some stocks at more reasonable prices after some of the market froth has subsided."

Focus on Fed Officials' Speeches

Although Nvidia is likely to be the main driver of market sentiment around Thursday, traders will also closely watch speeches from about six Federal Reserve officials to gauge their views on inflation and the future rate path. On Tuesday, US Treasuries sold off after Fed Governor Christopher Waller made notably hawkish remarks. Currently, the market has fully priced in a Fed rate hike next month and sees a strong possibility of another hike in January. Natixis CIB strategist Emilie Tetard said that with risks emerging simultaneously across multiple areas of the market, it is difficult for investors to determine where the true safe haven lies. She noted that if the shock is mainly concentrated in the AI industry and accompanied by large capital outflows from the US, "bonds could be a good hedging option." She added: "If interest rates continue to rise, the dollar could also become a safe-haven asset. But it is currently difficult to judge which scenario will ultimately materialize."

Dollar Holds Near Highs

In other markets, Brent crude oil fluctuated, trading below $92 per barrel. Although tensions between the US and Iran still threaten oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, crude production in the Middle East is increasing. The dollar was little changed. Overnight it briefly rose to 103.083, the highest level since April 2025. KBC Bank analysts said in a report that the dollar's recent rapid appreciation may not be over yet. The bank's analysts noted that the euro has already broken below the key technical support level of $1.1111. The dollar's recent strength has been mainly driven by rising market expectations for a Fed rate hike in December. Meanwhile, Bitcoin fell 1.1% to $73,499, down 16% year-to-date; in comparison, spot gold has fallen 7% this year. Alex Saunders, head of asset allocation at Citigroup, said that because Bitcoin's correlation with the stock market remains too high, it has not yet truly played the role of "digital gold." He said: "The problem with the digital gold investment thesis is that Bitcoin still has a very high correlation with the stock market." Saunders added that over the next five to ten years, Bitcoin should gradually transition toward a hard asset and become a tool for hedging against the risk of government-issued currency debasement. However, only when Bitcoin's correlation with gold rises significantly while its correlation with the stock market drops sharply can the market be considered truly mature.

The US Treasury cash market resumed trading after the Veterans Day holiday, with short-term Treasury prices falling. According to Tradeweb data, the 2-year US Treasury yield rose 3.4 basis points to 4.760%; the 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.1 basis points to 4.989%. The German 10-year government bond yield fell 2 basis points to 3.294%; the UK 10-year gilt yield fell 1.6 basis points to 5.209%.

Focus on PPI

After US inflation data came in unexpectedly higher earlier this week, investors will turn their attention to the Producer Price Index (PPI) due on Friday. Meanwhile, the initial public offering (IPO) of AI company Anthropic PBC is entering its final stage, and Nvidia will also report earnings next week. However, with several weeks still to go before the Fed announces its rate decision on December 9, the market environment could still change. According to LSEG data, money markets currently expect a 91% probability that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at its December policy meeting, and a 9% probability of a 50 basis point hike. Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie Group, said in a report: "There still appears to be a long time until the December FOMC meeting, and enough changes could occur in the interim to prompt the Fed to ultimately abandon a hike altogether, although the base case should still be a 25 basis point increase." He noted that multiple factors could prevent the Fed from hiking in December, or at least weaken the possibility of a one-time 50 basis point increase. These factors include a possible renewed US government shutdown, further declines in international oil prices driven by market expectations of a US-Iran peace agreement, and a possible new round of US stock selloffs if the AI industry outlook continues to deteriorate.

Deutsche Bank: Fed May Hike at Three Consecutive Meetings

After US October inflation data exceeded expectations, Deutsche Bank quickly shifted to a more hawkish policy forecast, expecting the Fed to hike rates at three consecutive meetings, changing its previous judgment that the Fed would pause in January. Deutsche Bank had previously expected the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points in December and March, with a pause at the January meeting in between. But its latest forecast has incorporated a January hike into the base case, expecting the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points each in December, January, and March. That would bring the federal funds rate target range from the current 3.75%–4.00% to 4.50%–4.75%. Before the inflation data was released, Fed Governor Waller said that if price pressures accelerate further, the Fed should consider a 50 basis point hike in December rather than the conventional 25 basis point adjustment. Deutsche Bank believes Waller's remarks opened the door to discussing a larger increase. The bank does not rule out the possibility of a one-time 50 basis point hike in December, but stressed that this is not its base case.

The most troublesome part of US inflation may be moving beyond energy. As the link between oil prices and US Treasury yields that formed after the Iran war broke down, investors are facing a new market reality: even if the war ends and energy prices return to normal, US inflation may not cool significantly as a result, and the Fed's tightening pressure could persist. For much of 2026, Wall Street widely believed that rising oil prices would push up inflation expectations and in turn drive Treasury yields higher. Higher energy costs would not only directly raise consumer prices, but could also prompt the Fed to keep rates high for longer, leading investors to sell Treasuries or demand higher yields to compensate for risk. But this trading logic has recently changed. This week, international oil prices fell to their lowest level in more than two months. At the same time, US Treasury yields climbed sharply because the latest economic data could prompt the Fed to take more aggressive rate action. This means that even if oil prices fall further, as long as the US economy remains strong, inflation pressure could still push Treasury yields higher.

Stocks in Focus

Selling pressure on Nvidia reappeared in US pre-market trading, with the company's board preparing to remove Jensen Huang. Nvidia shares fell 7% in Thursday pre-market trading as investors weighed the possibility of Huang's departure. Some on Wall Street expect his exit could cause the stock to fall sharply, with analysts predicting a decline of more than 20%. Key AI trade stocks fell alongside Nvidia. Software company Oracle dropped 3%, while chipmakers Micron Technology and Intel fell nearly 5% and more than 3%, respectively. Neocloud company Nebius also fell 13% in Thursday pre-market trading after reporting better-than-expected third-quarter revenue but disappointing guidance. In contrast, Advanced Micro Devices rose in pre-market trading after William Blair upgraded the stock.

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