On February 23, COMEX gold continued its upward trend, closing at $5,247.9 per ounce, a gain of 3.29%. Due to the Spring Festival holiday, domestic SHFE gold remained suspended.

During the holiday period, the overseas precious metals market experienced two distinct phases. In the first half, markets were preoccupied with repricing expectations for a Federal Reserve policy shift. Surprisingly strong U.S. non-farm payroll data for January and sticky inflation indicated by CPI figures cast a hawkish shadow over markets, fueling speculation about delayed rate cuts or even potential hikes. Notably, significant internal disagreements revealed in the Fed’s January monetary policy meeting minutes, combined with uncertainty over the nomination of a new Fed chair, led spot gold prices to briefly fall below the key psychological level of $5,000 per ounce, while silver exhibited sharp volatility.

In the second half, geopolitical tensions drove a strong rebound. As the U.S. deployed significant military forces to the Middle East and Iran nuclear negotiations faced heightened uncertainty, war risks escalated abruptly. At the same time, weaker-than-expected preliminary U.S. GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2025 (1.4%) and soft PMI data released by the Commerce Department revived fears of stagflation. Coupled with a U.S. Supreme Court ruling on February 20, 2026, that the Trump administration’s broad tariff increases under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were unlawful, weak macroeconomic data and rising risk aversion jointly propelled gold and silver prices to recover strongly by the end of the holiday period.

Looking ahead, "de-dollarization" and "Fed rate cuts" are expected to remain key themes this year, while the complexity and persistence of geopolitical tensions will continue to support gold prices. Given ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, a short-term bullish outlook on gold is warranted.