Heightened inflation concerns, driven by rising oil prices due to the Middle East conflict, led traders on Monday to scale back their expectations for interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank. According to swap contracts tied to policy meeting dates, the probability of the Fed delivering three rate cuts by 2026 has decreased from nearly 50% last week to just 20%. Traders have also eliminated expectations for three Bank of England rate cuts this year, reducing the likelihood of a cut in March from over 80% to 60%. Their bets on European Central Bank rate cuts for the year were halved. Yields on two-year government bonds in the US, UK, and Germany—which are most sensitive to monetary policy changes—have risen more sharply than those on longer-term bonds. This shift reflects a sharp increase in inflation expectations, prompted by Brent crude oil posting its most significant single-day gain in four years. The escalating conflict has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime passage responsible for transporting approximately one-fifth of the world's oil supply. Laura Cooper, a Global Investment Strategist and Head of Macro Credit at Nuveen, commented, "A sustained rise in oil prices will have significant spillover effects on the global economy and inflation trajectory. Persistent increases in energy costs could complicate the path toward lower inflation and delay the timing of further rate cuts."