A-share major indices showed notable divergence on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite closing nearly flat while the ChiNext Index surged 3.41%. Behind this divergence lies a significant capital rotation from cyclical and financial sectors toward tech and growth stocks, with main capital flooding over 55.3 billion yuan into the electronics sector in a single day, far outpacing all other industries. Communications and machinery equipment sectors also saw substantial inflows exceeding ten billion yuan each.
In market action, the AI computing hardware mainline staged a strong comeback, with optical module CPO leaders taking the spotlight as Zhongji Innolight surged over 10%, pushing its total market value back above the trillion-yuan mark. The benchmark index tracking the ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF (159363) gained more than 5%, while semiconductor chips also mounted a coordinated rebound, with the benchmark index for the Science and Technology Chip ETF (589190) climbing 3.29%. Over the weekend, OpenAI unveiled its next-generation large model GPT-6 Astra, reigniting global enthusiasm for AI investment.
Analysts point out that the AGI era has arrived, and the high prosperity of the computing power chain is expected to persist. With domestic computing infrastructure demand and AI application policies providing dual support, they recommend positioning along the AI hardware chain represented by optical modules and the domestic storage industry chain. Beyond technology, the agriculture, animal husbandry, and fishery sector drew particular attention, with seven stocks including Yasheng Group, Dunhuang Seed, and Jinjian Rice hitting their daily price limits, while the benchmark index for the Agriculture, Animal Husbandry and Fishery ETF (159275) closed at a nearly three-month high.
On the news front, the strengthening El Ni帽o event has heightened expectations for rising grain prices, with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasting that the probability of El Ni帽o persisting until the end of February 2027 is now close to 100%. On the downside, the banking sector, which had recently been on a strong run, faced a pullback as the benchmark index for the Bank ETF (512800) fell 1.46%, with all 42 constituent stocks closing in the red. On September 6, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China announced private placement plans aiming to raise a combined 260 billion yuan. While such capital injections strengthen the capital base and risk resilience of major banks over the long term, the market may have short-term concerns about pricing and equity dilution effects.
Why the sudden surge in optical modules?
Multiple catalysts appear to have driven the optical module CPO sector's broad rally. Overseas markets provided positive sentiment transmission, as US optical module stocks rallied strongly last Friday, prompting A-share counterparts to attract follow-on buying. OpenAI's official release of GPT-6 Astra last Friday led markets to believe that exponential growth in large model computing demand will directly boost shipment expectations for AI hardware like optical modules. Fundamentals remain solid, with industry prosperity continuing to rise, manufacturers reporting full order books and robust production schedules, while the increasing share of high-end products such as 800G and 1.6T modules provides clear earnings improvement expectations. Additionally, the upcoming Optoelectronics Expo is expected to see multiple optical module and optical chip companies showcase their latest products and technical solutions, potentially releasing positive signals around new product launches and order partnerships.
In a notable development, Goldman Sachs has raised its optical module shipment forecasts across the board, increasing 2026-2028 shipment projections for 1.6T and above by 29%, 61%, and 50% respectively, citing continued product mix upgrades ahead. The research report states that with AI infrastructure spending growth driving demand, product mix upgrading toward higher-speed transmission (800G/1.6T/3.2T), and rising optical component penetration driven by higher server port speeds, the outlook for optical module growth is constructive. According to Guozheng Index data as of August 31, 2026, the top three constituents of the ChiNext AI index are Eoptolink (12.61% weight), Zhongji Innolight (11.99% weight), and Tiantong Communication (10.25% weight).
GPT-6 Astra ignites chip stocks
OpenAI's new generation large model GPT-6 Astra has set off a global surge in AI hardware, with semiconductor chips rebounding strongly. The benchmark index for the Science and Technology Chip ETF (589190) surged 3.29%, with Yuanjie Technology and Juchen Shares rising by double digits, while Shijia Photon gained over 9%. Market analysis notes that GPT-6 Astra's core advancement lies in its ability to directly operate computers and software, completing complex tasks such as programming, scientific research, 3D modeling, and creating presentations and spreadsheets for users, which will consume substantial storage chips and flash memory, further strengthening the computing power demand narrative. According to TrendForce's latest memory industry research, DRAM contract prices rose significantly in the second quarter of 2026, driving overall DRAM industry revenue up 59.5% quarter-over-quarter to approximately $154.73 billion. Supply expansion still lags demand growth, with LLM model training and AI inference stimulating AI server demand.
Goldman Sachs Asia Pacific Chief Equity Strategist Timothy Moe stated that the market underestimates how long the global data center construction boom will sustain storage chip demand, a trend that will only intensify by 2027. US big tech spending next year is expected to exceed $1.2 trillion, significantly raised from the earlier estimate of $800 billion. On the policy front, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued the 15th Five-Year Plan for the information and communication industry, which emphasizes enhancing computing infrastructure development, accelerating the construction of a nationwide integrated computing network, systematically deploying 10,000-card and 100,000-card-plus intelligent computing clusters, and increasing efforts to adapt domestic computing chips.
Macquarie Securities notes that OpenAI's release of GPT-6 Astra officially heralds the beginning of the AGI era, driving continued high prosperity in the computing power chain. With domestic computing infrastructure demand and AI application policies providing dual support, hard tech may face short-term headwinds but retains its medium-term accumulation posture, suggesting positioning around domestic storage industry chains and computing hardware chains. The Science and Technology Chip ETF (589190) passively tracks the STAR Chip Index, covering core segments of the chip industry chain including storage, semiconductor equipment, and materials, offering high elasticity with 20% daily price limits. Public data shows the ETF's management fee is 0.3%, custody fee 0.08%, and combined fee rate of 0.38%, making it one of the lower-fee ETFs tracking the same index. Storage chip concentration refers to the combined weight of storage chip index (980138.CNI) constituents within the STAR Chip Index, which stood at 49.25% as of August 31.
Extreme weather ignites agricultural sector rally
The planting chain continued its aggressive advance, with multiple stocks including Yasheng Group, Dunhuang Seed, Jinjian Rice, and Wanxiang Denong hitting daily price limits. Shennong Seed rose over 9%, while other gainers included Nongfa Seed and Guolian Aquatic. The benchmark index for the Agriculture, Animal Husbandry and Fishery ETF (159275), the CSI All-Share Agriculture index, gained 1.32%. The WMO confirmed on September 3 that the El Ni帽o phenomenon has formed and will continue to strengthen, expected to develop into a super-strong level event with major impacts on global precipitation and temperature patterns.
Extreme weather risks are expected to persist through 2027, with the probability of El Ni帽o lasting until the end of February 2027 now close to 100%. Analysts suggest that the August rise in global food prices indicates risk premiums are returning to food markets, as climate shocks, geopolitical tensions, and trade logistics disruptions combine to heighten expectations of tightening supply. From a valuation perspective, the agricultural sector remains at relatively low levels, potentially presenting a favorable positioning opportunity. Wind data shows that as of the last trading day (September 4), the benchmark index's price-to-book ratio stood at 2.47 times, at the 27.95% percentile over the past five years, highlighting medium-to-long-term value. Going forward, recommendations focus on companies with superior seed varieties excelling in dense planting tolerance, medium-small ear characteristics, multi-resistance, and adversity tolerance, as well as those with strong earnings performance.
Looking at the broader market, A-shares have entered a phase of sustained volume contraction with range-bound trading, as today's turnover again fell below the 2 trillion yuan mark, suggesting the market may be entering a zero-sum game. Regarding whether tech's return is genuine or a one-day phenomenon, Guosen Securities believes that sector rotation and catch-up gains are likely to continue. While crowding and excess returns in the AI hardware space have been converging, domestic policy and liquidity conditions remain broadly accommodative. With positive catalysts such as industrial narratives emerging, the tech hardware sector is expected to re-emerge around the fourth quarter. Several securities firms including China Merchants Securities and Guosheng Securities have published strategy views on AI applications, hard tech core strategies, and the agricultural sector's profit bottoming process, with Wanlian Securities noting that the agriculture sector's first-half 2026 performance was pressured by falling hog prices, though structural investment opportunities in the second half may gradually emerge as fundamental divergence within the sector intensifies.
Investors should note the risk ratings of these funds, with the ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF, Science and Technology Chip ETF, and their feeder funds rated R4 (medium-high risk), suitable for aggressive investors (C4 and above), while other funds mentioned carry R3 (medium risk) ratings. Past performance does not indicate future returns, and investors should carefully read fund legal documents including the Fund Contract, Prospectus, and Fund Product Information Summary to understand risk-return characteristics and select products matching their risk tolerance.