Industry reports indicate that NAND contract prices have more than doubled since Q1 2025. On the demand side, AI model training and inference require higher performance from enterprise SSDs, including write speeds, IOPS, capacity, and endurance. Key applications like LLM rapid loading, KV caching, and RAG are expected to drive widespread SSD adoption.

On the supply side, the new joint venture factory between Kioxia and SanDisk began operations in Q3 2025, utilizing advanced BiCS8 technology, with revenue contributions expected in H1 2026. Given the supply-demand dynamics, tight supply conditions are projected to persist until at least late 2026, allowing NAND manufacturers to sustain multi-quarter price increases.

Key insights from the analysis include: 1. **Demand Growth**: Cloud and edge AI applications are significantly expanding SSD requirements. The global NAND flash market is forecast to approach 2,000 exabytes by 2028, maintaining nearly 30% annual growth over the next three years. 2. **Supply Constraints**: Major NAND producers remain cautious about capacity expansion, focusing instead on high-density technological upgrades. The top five manufacturers currently control over 90% of global NAND flash revenue. 3. **Market Impact**: The supply crunch is expected to support prolonged price elevation through 2026. Meanwhile, Yangtze Memory's expansion and Xtacking architecture may reshape domestic supply dynamics. 4. **HDD Outlook**: While HDDs retain cost advantages (currently 4-6x cheaper than SSDs) for cold storage applications, their cost edge may diminish with NAND advancements. The HDD market is projected to grow at about 15% annually.

Potential risks include slower-than-expected AI adoption, weaker PC/mobile demand, delayed production expansions, and intensified market competition.