Due to external demand shocks, overall industry sales are expected to decline by over 20%, with monthly improvements indicating a narrowing decline. The combined sales decline during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day is around 20%. In terms of consumption scenarios, business banquet performance remains weak, while mass consumption and wedding scenes are relatively resilient, with minor declines in Q3. The high-end gifting sector has shown signs of improvement before the holiday. In terms of performance among liquor companies, many are adopting a more pragmatic approach, accelerating adjustments to alleviate channel pressure, while also reducing investment expenditures and enhancing operational efficiency. On the collections front, leading liquor companies like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu have seen collection progress of over 80%, while regional liquor companies are doing reasonably well, with most achieving around 70%. However, mid-tier liquor companies are under significant pressure.

According to reports, Wuliangye has recently held dealer networking events in various locations. These events primarily conveyed two messages: first, a strict crackdown on low-priced goods disrupting market prices; second, an announcement of subsidy policies to increase support for dealers of varying sizes. Caitong Securities has stated in a research report that based on the rhythm of the two rounds of adjustments in the liquor industry, the current industry adjustment is nearing its end. It is expected that household banquet scenes will recover faster than business demand, and leading companies will continue to improve management efficiency, thereby increasing their market share. CITIC Securities' report indicates that the performance of the autumn 2025 Sugar and Wine Fair met expectations, and the industry is actively embracing consumer demand to expand market needs. Looking ahead, it is anticipated that the industry's fundamentals will hit bottom in Q3 of 2025. This year’s Q3 is expected to be the phase with the most pressure on sales, prices, and market confidence. It is estimated that the second half of this year will pose the highest pressure on the earnings reports of liquor listed companies, but with a clear recovery trend, there are favorable bottom-picking opportunities in the liquor industry.

For beer, the lower base in the second half of the year keeps pre-holiday stocking pace stable. However, considering the intensifying competition and the impact of liquor restrictions, some pressure is expected on Q3 reports. According to Zhito Finance app, Huachuang Securities emphasized the catalytic factors at the bottom of the liquor market and the trend of selected mass consumer products. Reports for liquor companies are accelerating, with leading liquor brands entering a bottom accumulation phase, supported by seasonal catalysts expected to drive up valuations. In the selected consumer product trend, snacks, beverages, and yellow rice wine are performing well, while traditional sectors like beer and dairy have started to show improvement in ROE. The catering supply chain is still at the bottom due to demand impacts.

Liquor: ZJLD's new flagship product "Dazhen" was officially launched, with Chairman Wu Xiangdong revealing that the product has achieved 370 million yuan in returns, and over 2,800 national alliance merchants have signed contracts. Huaxin Securities previously pointed out that the company’s introduction of the new flagship product in the first half of the year, positioned to complement the Zhen15 and Zhen30 series, has high cost performance, potentially creating a new growth curve for the brand.

Beer: CHINA RES BEER (00291), QD BEER (00168), BEIJING ENT (00392), BUD APAC (01876), and MIXUE GROUP (02097): On October 14, MIXUE's beer for 5.9 yuan per cup topped the Weibo hot search list. During the National Day holiday, MIXUE announced a total acquisition price of 297 million yuan for a 53% stake in Xianpi Fulujia. Following the completion of the transaction, Xianpi Fulujia becomes a non-wholly-owned subsidiary, and its financial performance will be consolidated into the group’s reports. MIXUE has officially extended its business scope from tea drinks and coffee to alcoholic beverages.

For more extensive Hong Kong stock information, download the Zhito Finance app for updates on Hong Kong and overseas financial information. Please visit www.zhitongcaijing.com (search for "Zhito Finance"); to join the Zhito Hong Kong stock investment group, please add Zhito customer service WeChat (ztcjkf).