The F Samsung Crude Oil Futures ETF (SEHK: 03175) saw a significant increase of over 4% in afternoon trading. At the time of reporting, the gain was 4.2%, with the price reaching HK$10.92 and a trading volume of HK$2.816 million.

The move follows reports that the U.S. Central Command stated on June 2nd that U.S. forces successfully intercepted multiple ballistic missiles and drones launched by Iran. In response to attempted attacks by Iran across the Middle East, the U.S. conducted a "self-defense strike" on Qeshm Island.

Conversely, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that, in retaliation, the Aerospace Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched missile and drone attacks on a U.S. airbase in a regional country and the headquarters of the U.S. Fifth Fleet.

Analysts at J.P. Morgan believe the likelihood of the Strait of Hormuz reopening within June is extremely low, a view more pessimistic than that held by many investors. They note that the current Brent crude price of around $95 per barrel reflects market expectations for a short-term opening of the Strait. However, the upside risk far outweighs the downside risk. If the Strait remains blocked, oil prices could asymmetrically surge to $130 or even $150 per barrel.

Furthermore, Toril Bosoni, head of the Oil Industry and Markets Division at the International Energy Agency, emphasized that even if a peace agreement were reached between the U.S. and Iran today, leading to the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the best-case scenario would still require six to eight months for normal navigation to resume.

These developments cast a significant shadow over the prospects for a recovery in crude oil market supplies.