On Tuesday, October 6, gold is currently trading near 4140, edging down 0.25% intraday, with prices still significantly below the historical high set in January of this year.

The current macroeconomic environment is complex, with multiple factors pulling against each other: the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to around 5.31%, the Federal Reserve raised rates as expected in September, lifting the target range to 3.75%-4.00%, while nonfarm payrolls added only 29,000 jobs and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.

At this stage, gold is no longer priced by a single safe-haven sentiment, but is instead driven by a combination of high interest rate suppression, dollar capital flows, geopolitical risk premiums, and physical allocation demand, resulting in highly volatile price action.

The weak structure of this round of trading traces back to last Friday's nonfarm payroll data. The October nonfarm figure fell well short of expectations, which in theory should be a major bullish catalyst for precious metals, yet gold completely failed to deliver an expected surge.

After the data was released, the gold price briefly spiked to a high of 4230, then quickly came under pressure and retreated, touching a low of 4122. Combined with Monday's continued weak and range-bound decline, the weak market structure was fully established.

I had previously made a clear prediction before the holiday: continued weakness before the holiday, with a potential recovery and strengthening after the holiday. Now only three trading days remain this week, and the market performance over these three days will directly determine whether gold can end its low-level consolidation and restart a sustained rebound.

To judge the current gold trend, the core reference must be the pace of the dollar. The dollar has recently been running persistently strong at high levels, which is the fundamental reason for gold's continued pressure. Even though the nonfarm data was significantly bullish for gold, it could not offset the suppression from a strong dollar.

The dollar is currently oscillating at high levels with no clear signal of topping, and there is still potential for further upside; meanwhile, gold is repeatedly fluctuating at low levels with its bottom not yet confirmed, and there remains downside risk ahead.

Looking at the overall market, gold is still in a weakness-dominated structure, with two main sources of the decline. First, the trend pivot resistance remains in effect. In a downtrend, the trend pivot serves as the bullish pressure zone, and every time the price rebounds near the pivot, it encounters dense selling pressure and struggles to break through and reverse in one move. Before the price effectively holds above the pivot resistance, one should not blindly judge a trend reversal; all rebounds should be defined merely as technical corrections within a downtrend, not the start of a new rally. Second, the bullish nonfarm data produced a typical bull trap pattern. Short-term positive news sparked a rapid price spike, attracting a large number of trend-following longs to enter, after which major players concentrated their selling at the rebound highs, leaving a large number of trapped long positions in the market. Each subsequent small rebound triggers stop-loss exits from trapped positions, continuously creating overhead selling pressure — this is the core reason for the recent pattern of not rising on bullish news and being easy to fall but hard to rise.

Based on the current weak structure, I already gave a clear trend-following approach on Monday: position short orders relying on top-bottom conversion resistance, and continue to sell on rebounds under pressure. The core advantage of trend-following trading is this: when the direction is correct, even if the entry point is off, the market will provide enough room for error.

For today's early weak decline, let me lay out the complete intraday rhythm clearly. First, early direct weakness is the first signal of continued bearish momentum. An early Asian session decline indicates concentrated release of bearish sentiment, with the market unwilling to wait for European session buildup, and the overall intraday tone is already bearish. Second, today's early high of 4152 is the intraday dividing line between bulls and bears, and also the core short-term defensive zone for bears. If the price continues to trade below 4152 around the European session, it means bears are in full control of the market rhythm. Third, in a weak market, the room for correction is limited. If the European session extends the weak trend, the rebound strength will inevitably be constrained. In a weak market, the smaller the rebound, the stronger the continued decline momentum; the larger the rebound, the more likely the market will fall into range-bound shakeouts. Fourth, before the European session, the market remains under pressure, extending the weak structure, with the price persistently below 4150. Fifth, with the previous day weak and the early session weak again, if the European session breaks to a new low, the 4100 mark will be reached quickly, and the U.S. session will likely see an accelerated bearish decline.

Today's precise trading ranges: Key resistance above: 4150-4165. Key support below: 4118-4100. Overall strategy: prioritize trend-following shorts, supplement with short-term longs at lows, and follow the bearish rhythm first.