Commodity ETFs have achieved a "double harvest" this year, with their total size soaring over 200% from the beginning of the year to reach 230 billion yuan, while their performance has also been impressive, with the highest return exceeding 53%.

Industry experts attribute the simultaneous growth in size and performance of commodity ETFs to a combination of factors, including heightened demand for safe-haven assets, policy expectations, and capital inflows.

**Size Surges by 205%** As of November 13, data shows that 17 commodity ETFs have seen a net inflow of 96.624 billion yuan, bringing their total size to 231.4 billion yuan—a 205.79% increase since the start of the year. Among them, Huaan Gold ETF leads with a size of 87.837 billion yuan, followed by Bosera and E Fund Gold ETFs, with sizes of 39.071 billion yuan and 33.866 billion yuan, respectively.

According to Huicheng Fund Research Center, the growth in commodity ETF size is driven by three key factors: 1. **Safe-Haven Demand**: Geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainties have spurred significant inflows into gold ETFs, accounting for about 70% of the total increase in commodity ETFs. Gold's role in optimizing asset allocation and hedging equity risks has become more prominent. 2. **Policy and Market Environment**: Regulatory support for high-quality development of index-based investments, coupled with increased participation from long-term investors such as pensions and insurance funds, has boosted passive investment adoption. 3. **ETF Advantages**: Low fees, high transparency, and trading convenience align well with investors' needs for diversified portfolios.

Cui Yue, an analyst at Morningstar China, noted that gold ETFs dominate the commodity ETF space. As a core asset with both safe-haven and inflation-hedging properties, gold has attracted significant attention amid rising global uncertainties, inflation pressures, and geopolitical risks, driving net asset value growth.

"Some investors allocate to gold ETFs to enhance portfolio stability through risk diversification," Cui said. "Long-term, as index investing becomes more widespread, gold ETFs—with their trading efficiency, low costs, and liquidity—are increasingly becoming a key tool for accessing the gold market." However, she cautioned that gold prices typically follow long cycles and do not generate interest income, so investors should balance allocations with income-generating assets for stable long-term returns.

Looking ahead, Huicheng Fund Research Center expects continued growth in commodity ETF size, albeit with structural divergences. Gold-themed funds are likely to remain strong due to central bank purchases, weakening dollar credibility, and persistent safe-haven demand. In contrast, agricultural and energy-chemical ETFs may face pressure from slowing global growth and energy transitions. Investors should diversify across research-driven, multi-strategy products to navigate market fluctuations.

**Top Performance Exceeds 53%** This year, commodity ETFs have delivered strong returns, with the highest yield surpassing 53% as of November 14. However, performance varies widely, with a 70-percentage-point gap between the best and worst performers.

Cui explained that gold ETFs have outperformed due to rising safe-haven demand, inflation concerns, and geopolitical tensions. In contrast, crude oil, soybean meal, and chemical futures ETFs are more influenced by macroeconomic conditions, supply-demand dynamics, and industry cycles, leading to divergent performance. Investors should align allocations with their risk tolerance and goals while maintaining diversification to mitigate volatility risks.

Huicheng Fund Research Center highlighted that performance disparities stem from macro conditions and demand fundamentals. Safe-haven flows into gold contrast with cyclical pressures on industrial metals and energy-chemical products amid weak global demand. Energy transitions further suppress traditional oil and gas prices, while gold benefits from steady central bank purchases. Shifts in market sentiment from cyclical to defensive assets have also exacerbated capital flow imbalances.