Bocom International has issued a research report maintaining a Buy rating on MINISO Group Holding Limited (09896). Due to structural impacts on profit margins from changes in business segment contributions, the firm has lowered its 2026–2027 profit forecasts by 7–10%. Based on a 2026 forward price-to-earnings ratio of 16x, the target price has been revised downward to HK$45.50, from the previous HK$48.70.

Bocom International highlighted the following key points:

Full-year results met expectations, with steady growth in both domestic and overseas operations. In 2025, the company’s revenue increased by 26.2% year-over-year to RMB 214.4 billion, while adjusted operating profit rose 7.9% to RMB 36.7 billion, aligning with earlier guidance. Adjusted net profit grew 6.5% to RMB 29.0 billion. The company continues to advance its globalization strategy, IP collaborations, and large-store format initiatives, enhancing both growth quality and brand momentum. Guidance for 2026 indicates high double-digit revenue growth, with adjusted operating profit and net profit expected to accelerate compared to 2025.

In mainland China, revenue grew 16.8% year-over-year in 2025, with same-store sales improving quarter by quarter. For the full year, same-store sales saw a mid-single-digit increase. The number of stores in China increased by 182 to 4,568, with new formats such as MINISOLAND strengthening the company’s channel upgrade strategy. With a portfolio of 30–40 proprietary IPs, MINISO aims to enhance the contribution of its own IPs through upgraded store designs and immersive experiences. The synergy between large-store formats and the IP matrix has effectively driven increases in both foot traffic and average transaction value. Looking ahead to 2026, the company plans to continue store upgrades, expecting further improvement in same-store sales.

Overseas business revenue grew 29.3% in 2025, while same-store sales declined slightly in the low single digits. The number of overseas stores increased by 465 to 3,583, including 197 net new directly operated stores, bringing the total to 700. North American revenue surged 68%, with same-store sales rising by a mid-single-digit rate. Following improvements in store operations, cost control, and localized product strategies, Bocom believes there is still room for margin expansion in the U.S. direct-operated stores. For 2026, the company reported positive trends in the U.S. market for January–February and plans to optimize SKU structures by focusing on high-turnover, high-margin products. Full-year operating margins are expected to improve year-over-year. In Southeast Asia, the focus will be on Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, where the company aims to replicate the successful theme park store model from China to drive same-store sales growth.