For retail specialists and economists, the conclusions drawn from this holiday shopping season vary dramatically, with the answers entirely dependent on product category, brand, and consumer demographics.

The spending power of American consumers remains robust, yet their minds are filled with caution. Public sentiment about the economic situation is low, but the pace of spending has not halted. Consumer spending in 2025 reached a record high, yet these impressive figures are not adjusted for inflation.

As the holiday shopping season winds down, economists and industry analysts are meticulously studying various spending metrics, searching for clues: Can American consumers continue to prop up the economy in 2026?

The industry consensus is that there is no single consensus at all.

Will O'Cull, Americas Retail Leader at Ernst & Young LLP's Parthenon consulting practice, stated frankly, "To be honest, the current data is contradictory and messy. What we're seeing is less a clear picture and more like a mosaic pieced together."

Nuanced detail and internal contradiction have become the defining characteristics of this holiday season. The spending patterns that can be summarized change based on product category, retailer, and brand, and are also closely tied to consumers' income levels, job security, and stock portfolios.

Meanwhile, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index—a closely watched core indicator—has declined for five consecutive months, falling to its lowest point since the tariff policy announcement in April.

Michael Brown, a U.S. economist at Visa, noted, "There is a significant disconnect between how consumers feel and how they are actually spending."

This ambiguous spending trend has placed retailers and economists, who closely monitor consumption data, in a difficult position, especially since consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of the U.S. economy. However, for now, various signs suggest Americans are entering 2026 in a relatively optimistic economic state: although unemployment is rising slowly, the job market overall remains stable; overall wage growth has outpaced inflation; there is a widespread expectation that interest rates will continue to be cut modestly, and the stock market continues to hover near all-time highs.

Furthermore, several positive factors in early 2026 could extend the current spending momentum: consumers will collectively redeem gift cards—an increasingly popular holiday gift for those on a tight budget; retailers will continue post-holiday sales to clear inventory; and most significantly, tax refunds are expected to provide a boost, with economists predicting refunds will exceed expectations next year.

Even so, retailers with strong recent performance, like Walmart and TJX Companies, are not resting on their laurels. TJX, the parent company of discount chains TJ Maxx, HomeGoods, and Marshalls, has seen significant sales growth as many higher-income consumers, seeking value and convenience, have started shopping at these affordable brands.

Michelle Meyer, Chief Economist at Mastercard, said, "It is this lingering uncertainty that makes many economic actors—both businesses and consumers—increasingly cautious, yet repeatedly surprised by stronger-than-expected economic performance."

Businesses are still awaiting a final ruling on tariff policy. In the coming weeks, the U.S. Supreme Court may decide whether President Trump has the legal authority to impose tariffs on imports from almost all countries. If the Court rejects the government's claim of a "national emergency" as justification for the tariffs, retailers and importers may be eligible to claim tariff refunds.

Meyer pointed out, "It remains uncertain how much of the tariff cost has been absorbed by U.S. retailers, and ultimately, consumers." The Yale Budget Lab estimates that the tariff policy adds an extra $1,800 per person annually to expenses for Americans.

Comparison shopping and the pursuit of value, aided by artificial intelligence, have become key trends.

Data from the National Retail Federation showed a record 202.9 million shoppers, both online and in-store, during the holiday weekend from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday. Adobe Analytics data indicated online sales during this period reached $44.2 billion, a 7.7% year-over-year increase.

Spending data from both Mastercard and Visa showed approximately 4% growth from November through the week before Christmas compared to the previous year. However, O'Cull noted that after adjusting for inflation, the real growth was quite weak and lower than the NRF's reported 4.3% growth for the previous year.

A deeper analysis of this season's spending patterns reveals anxious consumers prioritizing value and stocking up on household essentials. Adobe's online sales data showed a shift towards practical gifting: vacuum cleaner sales surged by 1300%, cookware sales rose 950%, and outerwear sales increased 850%. Persistent price increases for groceries, rent, and utilities have led savvy consumers to hold out for holiday discounts on big-ticket items.

Brown stated that Visa's data indicates the categories with the strongest sales growth this year were precisely those experiencing the least inflationary pressure. General merchandise sales grew 3.7%, as consumers increasingly valued convenience; apparel and accessory sales increased 5.3%; and electronics sales rose 5.8%, driven by consumer interest in higher-performance, AI-enabled products.

"This clearly shows that shoppers this season were comparison shopping and becoming incredibly savvy," Brown said.

The accelerated adoption of generative AI tools, like chatbots, this year underscores this trend. More consumers are using these intelligent tools as personal 'price comparison assistants.' Adobe Analytics data showed that as of November, AI-driven shopping-related search traffic had skyrocketed by 758% year-over-year.

The core consumer demand remains value, but the definition of 'value' differs sharply across disposable income levels. For some, value means stocking up on vitamins or shopping at charity thrift stores for gifts; for others, it means purchasing accessible luxury items like Coach handbags.

Meyer said, "Consumers have had the ability to spend, and they have been spending... it's just that today's consumer is more inclined to take things one step at a time, adjusting their behavior based on their actual purchasing power."

The divergence in the wealth effect is another critical factor.

Ernst & Young's O'Cull believes that even if this year's holiday spending was overall 'strong,' it does not guarantee this momentum will carry into 2026.

"Upon deeper analysis, two factors make us cautious," he said. On one hand, much of the growth in spending amounts is due to higher prices inflating the nominal figures; on the other hand, the current economic cushion relies heavily on the wealth effect.

Data from Moody's Analytics shows that by mid-2025, U.S. households earning $250,000 or more contributed nearly 50% of all consumer spending, up from about 35% in the early 1990s. This high-income group is more likely to own homes and hold stocks, both of which have appreciated in value since 2020. Abigail Watt, U.S. economist at UBS Investment Bank, noted that the top 20% of earners hold 87% of corporate stocks and mutual funds nationwide.

"We are at a stage in the economic cycle where there is a clear bifurcation among consumers. The balance sheets of higher-income households remain healthy, while lower-income households are facing increasing financial pressure," she said.

The situation for lower-income individuals is becoming more difficult: growth in blue-collar jobs has slowed, and wage gains have remained low. This group, with little savings and often burdened by student debt, is disproportionately impacted by rising costs for food, housing, and electricity.

Lower-income consumers, not wanting to forego holiday celebrations, are finding ways to cut costs: buying less, opting for second-hand goods, purchasing gift cards, or using credit cards and 'Buy Now, Pay Later' (BNPL) services. Adobe Analytics data showed BNPL usage for holiday shopping initiated in November reached $10.1 billion, a 9% increase year-over-year.

However, the situation is not entirely bleak. Moody's Analytics pointed out that while consumer credit delinquency rates in November remained elevated, they have stabilized overall compared to the past six months.

Shawn Grain Carter, a professor at the Fashion Institute of Technology in New York, added that regardless of the economic climate, the joy of buying something new never disappears, especially during times of economic and geopolitical turmoil.

She said that even when money is tight, shopping can help people regain a sense of normalcy.

"Consumers are thinking, 'Since everything around me is chaotic and out of control, what can I control?' The answer is shopping. Shopping is something you have agency over. It's a form of retail therapy."