Pre-market indicators point to a mixed open on Wall Street on Tuesday, September 8th. Dow futures are down 0.81%, while S&P 500 futures have slipped 0.25%. In contrast, Nasdaq 100 futures are showing resilience, edging up 0.07%.

Across the Atlantic, European markets are trading near the flatline. Germany's DAX is up 0.07%, the UK's FTSE 100 has added 0.02%, France's CAC 40 is down 0.05%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 is marginally higher by 0.06%.

In the commodities space, oil prices are surging. WTI crude is up 2.40% to $93.68 per barrel, while Brent crude has gained 1.59% to $98.54 per barrel.

Where to begin

The Japanese yen is in the spotlight following a report from Kyodo News indicating that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is planning to raise its policy rate to 1.25% at its September 17-18 meeting. This follows a batch of strong economic data, including a 4.7% year-on-year jump in nominal wages for July, the largest increase since 1997 and well above the 3.8% forecast by economists. Additionally, Japan's second-quarter GDP was revised up to an annualized growth rate of 1.4%, better than the initial 1.1% reading but still shy of the 1.8% consensus estimate. These robust figures are reinforcing market expectations for a rate hike, with investors also pricing in the possibility of further policy tightening at relatively short intervals thereafter.

Across the bond market, all eyes are on the U.S. Treasury Department. At 11:00 AM ET on Wednesday, officials will announce the maximum amount of 10- to 20-year U.S. Treasuries they plan to repurchase. The following day, the Treasury will disclose the exact volume of bonds purchased under the buyback program that commenced in May 2024. The department previously stated it would repurchase at least $4 billion of long-dated debt per operation before November 4th, up from the $2 billion in earlier operations. However, the Treasury retains discretion to expand the scale of these purchases, and market consensus suggests that Treasury Secretary Bessent's actions will ultimately exceed the previously announced repurchase targets.

Geopolitical tensions are also escalating. Saudi Arabia's Energy Ministry reported that multiple energy and utility facilities were attacked by Yemen's Houthi rebels, sparking fires at several locations and temporarily disrupting operations at some plants. The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen said the strikes hit civilian and economic infrastructure in Abha, Khamis Mushait, Najran, and Jizan, injuring 73 people. The coalition has vowed a firm response to the attacks.

Meanwhile, the UN World Food Programme has warned that surging El Nino conditions will likely intensify global acute food insecurity. The phenomenon is expected to drive up food prices in affected nations. Analysis suggests that under the current El Nino, an additional 49 million people across 45 countries and regions already facing severe food challenges could become acutely food insecure by the end of 2027, potentially pushing the total number from roughly 225 million to 274 million, an increase of about 22%. Central America and parts of southern Africa are projected to be hit hardest, with East Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia also facing significant impacts.

In a move to bolster domestic processing, Zimbabwe has imposed an immediate ban on the export of antimony and tungsten, while also suspending shipments of ores and concentrates. The directive, confirmed by the Mining Ministry, orders mining companies to process raw materials locally to add value. Zimbabwe is following in the footsteps of African nations like Guinea, Ghana, and the DRC in seeking greater economic returns from its natural resources. This follows a February decision to halt lithium concentrate exports, a restriction that was partially eased in April. The new ban is scheduled for full implementation in early 2027.

Copper prices are on a tear, hitting record highs on both the London and New York exchanges. The rally is fueled by a combination of supply-demand imbalances and tariff concerns. Analysts attribute the surge to robust long-term demand from data center construction, grid upgrades, electric vehicles, and renewable energy projects, coupled with declining output from major producing nations. Adding to the momentum are potential new tariffs on refined copper imports. While last summer's tariffs did not cover refined copper, the U.S. Commerce Department has proposed a 15% tariff beginning in 2027, rising to 30% in 2028.

Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecasts by $5 a barrel for December 2026 and December 2027, citing persistent risks of Middle East shipping disruptions extending into next year. The bank now projects Brent at $85 per barrel and WTI at $80 per barrel for December 2026, with forecasts of $80 and $75 respectively for 2027. Goldman also notes that if Gulf crude output averages 4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels in 2027, versus its base case of a 500,000 bpd deficit, Brent could surge above $120. Conversely, if Gulf production exceeds pre-war levels by 1 million bpd, Brent could drop into the low $60s.

Stock-specific developments

Amazon is venturing into the sterling bond market for the first time, appointing banks to arrange a maiden pound-denominated issuance. The offering is expected to feature four tranches with maturities of 3, 6, 12, and 19 years, with the deal potentially pricing as early as Wednesday. The exact size has not been disclosed. This move extends a year-long trend of cross-currency fundraising by hyperscalers, with Amazon having already tapped the euro, Swiss franc, and yen bond markets to diversify funding sources for the massive capital expenditures required for its AI transformation.

Intel and ASML are advancing the production deployment of High-NA EUV lithography. The companies announced that Intel's foundry has processed over 1 million wafers through early equipment qualification, R&D, and some production runs. High-NA EUV is already being used in the production of certain layers of the "Panther Lake" processor for the Intel Core Ultra 3 series. Intel's 18A process products using this technology are performing at or above levels achieved with conventional 0.33 NA EUV platforms. The partnership is also working on transitioning from 6-inch to 6x12-inch masks, while using stitching techniques to offer customers some High-NA advantages on existing 6-inch mask formats.

Apple has signed a long-term supply agreement with Kioxia for NAND flash memory. Reports speculating on the memory market suggest the contract spans three to five years and may not include a price cap. This indicates that Apple, despite wielding significant bargaining power in memory price negotiations, is prioritizing supply security over cost reduction for NAND flash.

Intel is reportedly planning another ~10% price increase for its PC CPUs, effective October 5, 2026. This would mark the third round of hikes since late 2025, following a ~10% increase in Q1 2026 and further adjustments in July for some consumer and server processors, with increases ranging from tens to over a thousand dollars per unit. Concurrently, Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan is reviewing the low-margin Small Core product line, with some products potentially entering end-of-life status. Supply chain sources suggest these moves are aimed at boosting overall gross margins, signaling a departure from the previous volume-at-any-cost strategy.

Novartis has suffered a third clinical trial setback in just one week. The Swiss pharmaceutical giant announced Tuesday that its experimental injectable drug del-desiran failed to meet its primary endpoint in the Phase III HARBOR study for myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1), a rare muscle-wasting disease. Del-desiran, a core asset from Novartis's $12 billion acquisition of Avidity Biosciences, was once viewed as a potential blockbuster. The failure deals another blow to the company's efforts to find new growth drivers as it faces the largest patent cliff in its history.

Anthropic has decided against acquiring AI startup Decart AI, according to sources familiar with the matter. The company had explored the deal and conducted due diligence but ultimately walked away, though other forms of collaboration remain possible. Decart AI specializes in reducing AI training and operational costs through improved chip efficiency, offering software that optimizes compute utilization without sacrificing performance. Anthropic rarely makes large acquisitions and is currently focusing resources on new product development and the compute power needed for customer service, in preparation for its highly anticipated initial public offering. Sources say the company plans to raise as much or more than SpaceX in its IPO.

Canaan reported a challenging second quarter with total revenue of $31.9 million. Product revenue came in at $13.6 million, reflecting softening mining machine demand and lower average selling prices for computing power. Mining revenue was $17.7 million, pressured by Bitcoin price weakness and seasonal power restrictions. However, the company mined 243 Bitcoins during the quarter and saw its crypto holdings reach an all-time high of 1,915 BTC and 3,952 ETH.

Key upcoming data and earnings

At 11:00 PM Beijing time, the U.S. will release the New York Fed's August survey of consumer expectations for 1-year inflation. In corporate news, Braze is scheduled to report earnings early Wednesday morning.