36,000 Outlets Later, The Next Chapter for Luckin Coffee

Deep News
08/11



With its store count surpassing 36,000, Luckin Coffee Inc. has reached a new milestone in its expansion journey. The release of the Q2 2026 financial results reveals two contrasting narratives. Externally, the company shows robust growth in store numbers, revenue, GMV, and monthly active users, alongside a recovery in profitability, signaling an all-out sprint to capture market share. Internally, however, the same-store sales growth for self-operated locations has turned negative, business expansion is driving up costs, and operating margins are slightly declining, highlighting the side effects of rapid store openings.

Over the past few years, Luckin Coffee has relied on fast expansion and low pricing to penetrate the domestic coffee market. However, as tea-based beverage brands aggressively enter the coffee segment, the competition in the affordable coffee space has become increasingly fierce. The Q2 report has brought a core challenge to the forefront: as industry rivalry intensifies, how can Luckin Coffee balance scale expansion with store-level operational quality and profitability to achieve truly high-quality growth?

Store Count Reaches a New High

Store expansion remains the primary driver of Luckin Coffee's Q2 growth. As of the end of the quarter, the company's global store count reached 36,310, including 36,087 stores in China and 223 overseas. Among these, 23,734 are self-operated stores and 12,576 are partnership stores. The company added a net 2,714 new stores in the quarter, with a cumulative addition of over 5,000 stores in the first half of 2026, widening its lead over competitors like Starbucks, Cudi, and Lucky Cup. At the current pace, Luckin Coffee is projected to surpass 40,000 stores by the end of this year.

This expansion has attracted more consumers. The monthly average number of transacting users in Q2 reached 112.7 million, a year-over-year increase of 22.9%, setting a new record. This growing user base provides significant confidence for Luckin Coffee to continue its expansion. The increase in store count and monthly active users drove higher sales volumes. The Q2 report shows total net revenue of 15.886 billion yuan, up 28.5% year-over-year, primarily driven by a 30% increase in GMV to 18.4 billion yuan.

Profitability also saw a highlight. Q2 GAAP operating profit was 2.123 billion yuan, a 22% increase year-over-year, with net profit hitting 1.486 billion yuan, up 16%. Non-GAAP operating profit reached 2.396 billion yuan, up 26%, and net profit was 1.753 billion yuan, up 23%. This profit recovery is notable after a period of decline. From Q3 2025 to Q1 2026, GAAP net profit showed negative growth, dropping 2.7%, 39.1%, and 3.3% respectively. Now, the company has bounced back to double-digit positive growth, emerging from a period of sustained pressure.

Despite this improvement, the overall quality of profitability remains under pressure. The GAAP operating margin for the quarter was 13.4%, slightly down from 14.1% in the same period last year, with the net profit margin also declining. By segment, Q2 revenue from self-operated stores was 11.564 billion yuan, up 26.6% year-over-year, accounting for 73% of total revenue. The operating profit for this segment was 2.469 billion yuan, up 25.9%, with a store-level operating margin maintained at 21.3%, reflecting the cost advantages of standardized operations and centralized procurement in the direct-store system. Revenue from partnership stores was 3.668 billion yuan, up 27.9%, representing 23% of total revenue.

"Since the third quarter of last year, the delivery mix has continued to decline from its peak level, and our improved fulfillment efficiency has supported our profitability and margin improvement trend," said Luckin Coffee co-founder and CEO Guo Jinyi during the earnings call. Data shows that the average delivery cost per order has decreased. In Q2, delivery expenses were 1.618 billion yuan, a 3.1% decrease year-over-year, marking the first annual decline in delivery costs since the external delivery war began last year. Guo Jinyi also noted that the company has continued to optimize various product and operational initiatives this year, yielding encouraging results. For example, cup size upgrades and product innovations have enhanced customer experience and supported overall average selling prices and cup volumes.

"We remain cautiously optimistic about our operational performance for the second half of the year," Guo Jinyi stated. Luckin Coffee will adjust its strategy based on evolving market conditions and consumer demand, balancing long-term growth opportunities with profitability improvements to drive higher quality and more sustainable business growth.

Declining Same-Store Sales Growth

Beneath the impressive top-line figures, structural weaknesses are becoming apparent. Q2 same-store sales for self-operated stores declined by 5.3% year-over-year, a significant widening of the decline from Q1, becoming a focal point of market discussion. The financial report shows that same-store sales growth for Luckin Coffee's self-operated stores was -5.3%, compared to 13.8% in the same period last year and -0.1% in Q1 2026. Throughout 2025, same-store sales growth remained positive, with double-digit gains in Q2 and Q3, before slowing to 1.3% in Q4. This metric turned negative starting in Q1 2026.

"This is primarily due to a temporary high comparison base caused by increased food delivery subsidies in the same period last year," Guo Jinyi explained. The reduction in food delivery subsidies happened faster than initially anticipated, making the high base effect from last year's subsidy increases more apparent, which is reflected in the Q2 same-store sales performance. He added that for Q3, due to particularly intense platform subsidies in July and August last year, the high base effect is expected to continue.

While Luckin Coffee attributes the decline to the high base effect from last year's large subsidies on external delivery platforms and the subsequent contraction of subsidies and delivery orders this year, industry observers widely believe that high-density store placement within the same city is causing customer traffic cannibalization. In the same business district, multiple stores are dividing the original customer base, passively lowering the average daily orders per store.

Cost pressures from expansion are also evident. In Q2, total operating expenses reached 13.763 billion yuan, a 29.6% increase year-over-year, attributed to business expansion. Among these, material costs were 6.124 billion yuan, up 34.3%, driven by increased product sales and material sales to partnership stores. Store rental and other operating costs were 3.614 billion yuan, up 35.6%. Additionally, sales and marketing expenses were 925 million yuan, a 56.1% increase year-over-year, due to higher spending on advertising and promotions, as well as commissions for third-party delivery and live-streaming platforms.

Greater Ambitions

Beyond the short-term challenges of declining same-store sales and rising costs, the competitive landscape for Luckin Coffee is undergoing a profound shift, with market rivalry becoming increasingly intense. The affordable coffee market in China in 2026 is no longer just about professional coffee brands like Cudi and Lucky Cup. Tea-based beverage leaders such as Mixue Bingcheng, ChaPanda, Guming, and Shanghai Auntie are leveraging their vast offline store networks and deep roots in lower-tier markets to collectively enter the fresh-brewed coffee segment. This creates a pincer movement against Luckin Coffee's growth engine in these markets, serving as a key external factor behind the negative turn in Q2 same-store sales.

Facing this increasingly competitive market, Luckin Coffee intensified its product offensive in Q2, using new items to attract customer traffic and boost performance. CFO An Jing revealed during the earnings call that Q2 product sales revenue grew 29% year-over-year to 12.2 billion yuan, with fresh-brewed beverage net revenue reaching 11.2 billion yuan, accounting for about 70% of total net revenue. According to Guo Jinyi, Luckin Coffee launched 28 fresh-brewed beverages and over a dozen light food items in Q2. Beyond coffee, the quarter introduced new product lines, including yogurt smoothies and iced milk drinks, broadening the full-category product portfolio to position the brand as a one-stop beverage destination for different times of the day and consumption scenarios.

For instance, in May, the company launched a small green lime series, promoting a refreshing, low-calorie summer fruit tea. Later that month, two new alcoholic-infused specialty drinks were introduced to test the lightly intoxicated scenario, exclusively for in-store dining. To meet consumer demand, Luckin Coffee also introduced a customized cup size for its Small Butter Americano, designed to reduce ice dilution and enhance the rich flavor, driving repeat purchases of existing products.

"As of the end of the second quarter, among the 25 products that have sold over 100 million cups cumulatively, five are non-coffee products," Guo Jinyi added during the earnings call, further demonstrating Luckin Coffee's strong brand appeal and product execution capability.

The logic behind this diversification strategy is clear. Amidst the intensifying competition in the core coffee business and the intrusion of tea brands into the coffee space, Luckin Coffee is expanding into fresh fruit teas, yogurt smoothies, iced milk, and lightly intoxicated specialties to cover full-day consumption scenarios. This strategy aims to weaken its "pure coffee brand" label, transforming into a comprehensive mass beverage service provider. This serves to hedge against the growth ceiling of its core business and is a key defensive strategy against industry competition.

Beyond store count, Luckin Coffee holds a larger long-term vision. "I want to reiterate our strong confidence in the long-term growth potential of the Chinese coffee market. Compared to more mature global coffee markets, coffee consumption in China is still in the early stages of habit formation, with significant room for future penetration and frequency growth," Guo Jinyi stated during the call. "This long-term market opportunity underpins our high-quality, scale-growth strategy. It is also the key driver for our continued expansion, giving us ample room to keep opening more stores while maintaining store quality."

He said that as coffee consumption becomes an increasingly integral part of Chinese consumers' daily lives, Luckin Coffee has established a nationwide store network covering all city tiers and diverse consumption scenarios. From first-tier cities to county-level markets and towns, as well as different settings like office buildings, commercial areas, communities, campuses, and transportation hubs, the company will continue to expand consumer accessibility and strengthen its brand share as a national professional coffee brand.

During the Q3 2025 earnings call, Guo Jinyi clearly stated that the long-term development of the coffee industry will still be centered on self-pickup, with delivery serving only as a temporary supplement, based on the inevitable return to the "location-based" nature of coffee consumption. In management's narrative, store expansion is not just about adding numbers. It is about leveraging the national store network, brand assets, and product capabilities to better identify and serve growing customer demand.

Supporting this expansion system is a highly replicable operational model covering the entire chain from demand insight, site selection, and store construction to post-launch operations. This is enhanced by digitalization and AI technology to improve decision-making efficiency, with organizational execution ensuring both the speed of store openings and the quality of store operations. Therefore, store expansion is merely a means; the ultimate goal is to capture long-term market share. Luckin Coffee believes that the ceiling for coffee store potential in the domestic market remains high. As coffee penetration and consumption frequency increase, the total market capacity will continue to expand, giving the company confidence to maintain a competitive pace of store openings and capture the long-term industry dividend.

Looking ahead, the domestic coffee market capacity will continue to grow with increased consumption penetration. For Luckin Coffee, 36,000 stores is not a finish line, but a new starting point. While racing in scale, the next core challenge for the brand is to balance speed and quality, as well as scale and efficiency. This will involve continuous product innovation, refined operations, and full-scenario deployment to defend its leadership position amidst intense competition and achieve a higher-quality leap forward.

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