Shares of space exploration firm SpaceX have fallen below their $135 initial public offering price for the first time since the company's record-breaking June listing, signaling a rapid cooling of market enthusiasm for this "rockets and artificial intelligence" concept stock.
On July 15 local time, SpaceX stock dropped to an intraday low of $132.15, a decline of more than 2% from its IPO price, before closing at $135.27, just above the offering level. Since reaching a closing high on June 16, the company's market capitalization has shed approximately $860 billion, a drop of one-third, bringing its current valuation down to around $1.78 trillion.
Factors Behind the Decline
Analysts suggest the stock's fall results from a combination of profit-taking, a reassessment of its valuation, and the unwinding of previously extreme bullish positions. Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com, stated that the SpaceX pullback is due to multiple converging factors. Steve Sosnick, chief market strategist at Interactive Brokers, noted the recent absence of new catalysts to sustain investor excitement about the company.
Growing Valuation Concerns
Market skepticism regarding SpaceX's valuation is also increasing. The company reported full-year 2025 revenue of $18.674 billion against a net loss of $4.937 billion. At the time of its IPO pricing, its price-to-sales ratio already exceeded 90 times. Veteran investor George Noble reiterated an extremely bearish stance, arguing that a reasonable share price for SpaceX is only around $30.
Potential Future Headwinds
Further pressure may lie ahead. The company's first post-IPO earnings report is expected in the first week of August. Subsequently, the IPO lock-up period will begin expiring in phases, allowing eligible employees and some early shareholders to start selling their holdings, a move analysts believe could put additional downward pressure on the stock. Concurrently, SpaceX plans to conduct the 13th test flight of its Starship vehicle on July 16, an event investors are watching closely.