A wave of major share sales by numerous large global corporations is putting pressure on the long-running bull market.

This fundraising surge includes a planned record-breaking $75 billion IPO for SpaceX, an $85 billion equity raise by Google's parent company Alphabet, and the sale of over $26 billion in American Depositary Receipts by South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix.

For years, investors have celebrated this powerful bull run—which, to be precise, has lasted three years and nine months, during which the S&P 500 has more than doubled. Now, with companies rushing to raise capital at elevated levels, there is growing concern that the market's celebratory run may be nearing its end.

A bull market does not collapse simply because it has lasted a long time, and even high valuations are usually not enough to end one on their own. However, when the supply of new shares floods the market, exceeding demand, conditions can weaken. For example, the concentrated wave of large-scale share offerings from late 1999 into the first half of 2000 is seen by many as a contributing factor to the dot-com bubble burst.

Consequently, some investors are wary of the current environment, characterized by a surge in new stock and bond issuance combined with a decline in corporate share buybacks. Data provider Dealogic reports that new equity issuance to investors this year has already reached $344.7 billion, surpassing the total issuance for each of the full years 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025. This figure includes initial public offerings, follow-on offerings, and convertible bonds.

Rob Arnott, Chairman of Research Affiliates, noted, "Equity issuance tends to surge towards the end of a bull market."

The pace of new securities issuance is accelerating. Last month, SpaceX completed its listing, setting a record for the largest IPO in history. Last Friday, SK Hynix completed a share placement, marking the largest-ever stock sale by a non-U.S. company. A pipeline of other companies, including AI developer Anthropic, are also preparing IPOs.

Simultaneously, the scale of corporate share buybacks is continuing to shrink, further increasing the overall supply of shares in the market.

Data from advisory firm Elm Wealth indicates that over the next year, the net financing of equity and debt by U.S. companies is projected to reach $500 billion. In contrast, over recent years, massive share buybacks resulted in a net reduction of $1 trillion in the supply of U.S. stocks and bonds.

Of course, a concentrated wave of share sales does not guarantee a market downturn. A similar large-scale financing boom occurred in 2021 with the frenzy around Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs). Although many SPAC deals subsequently failed, causing significant investor losses, the S&P 500 was not dragged down by the negativity that year, instead surging 27%.

However, concentrated corporate share sales are often a classic signal that a bull market is approaching its final stages—companies seize the window to raise funds while investor sentiment is euphoric.

A notable recent development is the issuance of stocks and bonds by major AI hyperscale cloud service providers to fund an unprecedented wave of capital expenditure.

Data from Janus Henderson Investors shows that total capital expenditure by these companies is expected to exceed $800 billion this year, up from $450 billion last year, and is projected to surpass $1 trillion next year.

John Lloyd, Global Multi-Sector Credit Head at Janus Henderson, stated, "Most hyperscale tech companies have shifted away from the carefully planned capital allocation strategies of recent years. Funds that were previously used for share buybacks are now being directed towards new share issuance."

Lloyd pointed out that Amazon alone raised $85 billion through equity issuance in the first half of this year, while Oracle is currently grappling with negative cash flow.

He added, "Before the AI wave, these companies had exceptionally strong cash flows, very low debt, and their operational focus was largely on share buybacks. Now, everything has changed."

Some industry veterans believe that investors need not be overly alarmed by the surge in new issuance and the decline in buybacks, partly because their impact on the overall market's supply-demand dynamics is limited. After all, the total market capitalization of U.S. stocks is nearly $80 trillion, making changes in securities issuance volume relatively insignificant in comparison.

Howard Marks, Co-Chairman of Oaktree Capital, stated that it is difficult to predict when increased share issuance and reduced buybacks will begin to weigh on the stock market. He also noted that these two factors alone are generally insufficient to end a bull market.

James Paulsen, former Chief Investment Strategist at Leuthold Group and now a Substack columnist, commented, "This phenomenon reflects broad optimism in the corporate world, with investors reluctant to miss out. At its extreme, it's a sign of an overheated market."