Everbright Securities Company Limited released a research report stating that considering CHINAHONGQIAO's (01378) leading position in the aluminum industry, it maintains a "BUY" rating. Due to the expected rise in aluminum price levels, the company has raised its profit forecasts, expecting net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 24.73 billion yuan, 26.60 billion yuan, and 28.71 billion yuan respectively, representing upward revisions of 5.8%, 5.6%, and 3.4%. The corresponding P/E ratios at current stock prices are 8.8x, 8.1x, and 7.5x respectively.

The company announced that for the first half of 2025, it achieved operating revenue of 81.04 billion yuan, an increase of 10.1% year-over-year; and net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.36 billion yuan, a significant increase of 35% year-over-year.

Everbright Securities Company Limited's main viewpoints are as follows:

**Declining Costs Combined with Rising Product Volume and Prices Support Strong Performance Growth**

The company's semi-annual performance growth was mainly driven by rising volume and prices of its products. In the first half of the year, aluminum alloy product sales volume was approximately 2.906 million tons, up 2.4% year-over-year; alumina product sales volume was 6.368 million tons, up 15.6% year-over-year. The average selling prices for aluminum alloy products and alumina in the first half were 17,853 yuan/ton and 3,243 yuan/ton respectively, representing year-over-year increases of 2.7% and 10.3%.

Meanwhile, the company's main raw material costs declined: the average price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port in H1 2025 was 675.67 yuan/ton, down 22.8% year-over-year.

**Declining US Dollar Index and Sustained Industry Demand Growth Support Aluminum Price Resilience**

As of August 25, 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum prices were 20,820 yuan/ton, up 4.7% from the beginning of the year. According to Aladdiny forecasts, looking at major aluminum consumption indicators for 2025, aluminum material net exports, photovoltaics, and residential construction are expected to be drag factors. New energy vehicles, transmission lines, air conditioners and other consumer goods are expected to maintain relatively fast growth, continuing to play a fundamental role in aluminum consumption growth. Domestic aluminum consumption is expected to reach 54.3549 million tons in 2025, up 1.46% year-over-year. Excluding export products, domestic aluminum consumption is expected to grow 3.06% year-over-year.

**Substantial Share Buybacks Demonstrate Confidence, High Dividends Continue to Strengthen Shareholder Returns**

Based on confidence in the group's future prospects and long-term value, the company periodically repurchases its shares in the open market according to market conditions, with a planned total repurchase amount of no less than HK$3 billion. The company paid a dividend of HK$1.02 per share on June 13, 2025, with cumulative dividends for 2024 of HK$1.61 per share (2023: HK$0.63 per share). Based on the closing price on the ex-dividend date of May 21, 2025, the company's dividend yield was 11%.

**Electrolytic Aluminum's Inclusion in National Carbon Market Approaches**

On March 15, 2024, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment publicly solicited opinions on the "Enterprise Greenhouse Gas Emission Accounting and Reporting Guidelines" and "Enterprise Greenhouse Gas Emission Verification Technical Guidelines" for the aluminum smelting industry. This initiative indicates that China's electrolytic aluminum industry may soon be included in the national carbon market.

According to Antaike data, producing electrolytic aluminum using thermal power generates approximately 13 tons of CO2 emissions per ton, while using hydroelectric power generates only 1.8 tons of CO2 emissions per ton. Thermal power aluminum will subsequently face upward cost pressure, which may drive electrolytic aluminum enterprises to pursue energy conservation and emission reduction internally, and create price premiums for hydroelectric aluminum.