Slowing Job Growth Seals Fed Rate Cut as White House Criticizes Powell for Delayed Action

Deep News
09/05

The weak employment data released Friday is likely to cement the Federal Reserve's decision to implement interest rate cuts at its upcoming policy meeting later this month. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has intensified criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, accusing him of failing to act promptly.

Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer stated in an interview: "Jerome Powell should do his job and lower rates now."

"What is he waiting for?"

President Trump added in a Truth Social post: "Slow-moving Jerome Powell should have cut rates long ago."

Friday's employment report represents the final significant jobs market data before the Fed's September 16-17 meeting.

Prior to Friday's jobs report, Powell had opened the door for rate cuts during his late August speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. He noted that the balance of risks appears to be shifting and that "it may be appropriate to adjust our policy stance."

The newly released Friday employment report validated this perspective. The U.S. added 22,000 jobs in August, falling short of economists' expectations of 75,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.2% to 4.3%.

June's job growth data was revised to negative territory, showing a decline of 13,000 positions. July's job growth fell below the past year's trend level, indicating that employment growth has decelerated for three consecutive months.

Multiple analysts monitoring Fed developments indicate that this data confirms rate cuts will be implemented this month. Investors share this view, with the probability of a rate cut at this month's meeting rising to 99%.

Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management, told media: "There's no question about rate cuts - they're definitely happening this time."

She noted that the question is whether this will be a "dovish or hawkish cut" and how Powell will discuss policy direction for the coming months.

EY Chief Economist Greg Daco stated he maintains his view of a modest rate cut this month, but the real question lies in "what happens after the cut" - including the remaining two meetings in 2025 and policy direction for 2026.

For months, the White House has been pressuring Powell and the Fed to ease monetary policy.

Chavez-DeRemer added Friday: "While I'm not an economist, I can tell you this: if he doesn't cut rates, the American people will continue to suffer."

"Businesses are investing trillions of dollars into the economy, employees, and their own operations... We need this boost because American businesses currently cannot access lower-cost financing to invest in employee training and development."

Regarding Powell, she stated: "I simply cannot understand what he's waiting for. He knows the data and understands the importance of this matter. If this is based on political considerations, it's utterly ridiculous. He should act immediately and cut rates."

Fed Governor Chris Waller advocates for a 25 basis point cut at the September policy meeting. He stated that downside risks to the job market have increased since he first called for rate cuts in July.

On August 28, before Friday's jobs report, Waller had expressed hope that a September rate cut would prevent job market deterioration, noting that the Fed's consideration of a 25 basis point cut was not belated.

Capital Economics economist Bradley Saunders indicated that despite weak employment data, he doesn't expect a larger 50 basis point cut this month.

Saunders stated: "While August nonfarm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs, confirming that rate cuts are inevitable at this month's FOMC meeting, the unemployment rate only rose modestly to 4.3%, which will dampen calls for a 50 basis point cut."

Currently, August's 22,000 job additions fall below what some economists call the "break-even rate" - the level of job growth needed to maintain population growth amid declining immigration levels and reduced job creation requirements.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated earlier this week that he believes the current U.S. economy only needs to create 30,000 to 80,000 jobs monthly to meet population growth demands, while this estimated figure exceeded 100,000 in previous years.

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