The prolonged US-Iran conflict, now spanning six months, has pushed international oil prices back toward the $100-per-barrel mark. After a six-week hiatus, crude prices have once again crossed the triple-digit threshold, with Brent futures breaking through $100 per barrel intraday on September 9th and US WTI crude trading above $95 per barrel. Goldman Sachs has issued warnings that prices could potentially surge toward $120 per barrel, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining the primary driving force behind this escalation. As September began, the United States claimed to have destroyed multiple Iranian oil tankers, prompting Iran to announce the establishment of new navigation "restricted zones," intertwining military and economic maneuvers while risks continue to spill over amid the US-Iran standoff. The price at the fuel pump serves as the most immediate war bill visible to ordinary citizens.

The first bill is being paid by the United States itself. According to the latest data from the American Automobile Association (AAA), US diesel prices hit a record high of $5.90 per gallon on September 8th, while the average gasoline price climbed to $4.15 per gallon, a 30% increase compared to a year earlier. Oil prices are directly linked to inflation. Approximately 90% of American households own vehicles, and about 70% of commuters drive alone to work, while diesel serves as the fuel for trucks, heavy construction equipment, and agricultural machinery. Rising costs in these areas will inevitably transmit to transportation, food, construction, and even household heating prices. With the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting approaching, market participants have begun discussing the possibility of resuming interest rate hikes. Moody's chief US economist believes that this conflict is one of the key drivers behind the rise in US Treasury yields this year, meaning the distant warfare will translate into interest payment burdens for American finances.

The inflationary fire is also threatening to scorch ballots. With only two months remaining until the November midterm elections, the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll shows President Trump's approval rating has fallen to 33%, the lowest level of his second term. Approximately 80% of respondents anticipate the US-Iran conflict "will last a very long time," and the cost of living has become one of the most prominent election issues for voters. Senator Jack Reed, the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, put it bluntly: "After six months in the Middle East, not a single US goal has been achieved." Reed outlined a checklist: before the war, the administration claimed it would destroy Iran's nuclear program, eliminate its missile and drone capabilities, and dismantle its defense industry within weeks. Six months later, none of the items on that checklist have been accomplished. Furthermore, 18 American service members have been killed and over 700 wounded, while America's international standing has been "significantly weakened."

The bill that the United States cannot fully pay is also being distributed worldwide. Looking first at the energy account: with shipping restricted through the Strait of Hormuz, liquefied natural gas exports from the Gulf region have been disrupted, and European gas prices have surged to their highest levels since late 2022. With winter approaching, Europe's gas storage facilities are only 66% full, approximately 12% lower than the same period last year. Examining the interest rate account: since September, despite renewed conflict, international gold prices have been trading lower while US, European, and Japanese government bonds have faced selloffs, putting pressure on traditional safe-haven assets. The reason lies in the market's repricing of this conflict, shifting from "panic" to "inflation." Rising oil prices elevate inflation expectations, which in turn raise expectations for central bank rate hikes, pushing bond yields higher and suppressing gold prices. External forecasts widely expect the European Central Bank to raise rates in September with near certainty, expectations for Bank of Japan tightening are intensifying, and the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September exceeds 60%.

The trade account also demands attention. Before the conflict, over 100 commercial vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz daily; that figure has now fallen to approximately 10 ships, marking a five-month low. Commercial ships are losing their "non-combatant" immunity, and the boundary between military and commercial operations has become increasingly blurred. For shipping companies, risk is no longer solely about route safety but also whether vessels might become leverage in geopolitical maneuvering due to their country of registry, cargo origin, or trade relationships. Once commercial shipping becomes a tool for exerting economic pressure between conflicting parties, the conflict's impact naturally propagates along shipping routes, through ports, and across supply chains.

The final account is the development ledger. The World Bank, in its latest Global Economic Prospects report, has downgraded its global growth forecast for 2026 to 2.5%. The institution noted that the Iran conflict has already caused substantial energy price increases, and if energy supply disruptions intensify alongside financial risks, growth could slow to as low as 1.3%. After reviewing all four accounts, the conclusion is clear: guns and missiles cannot produce security, and sanctions cannot buy peace. Dialogue and negotiation are the only ways to cool oil prices and, more importantly, to stop the world's bleeding.