On June 26th, with the Strait of Hormuz reopening and Qatar's LNG production increasing, the global natural gas market may return to a more balanced state in the third quarter, according to Mega Anhui. The previously heightened supply disruption concerns are now subsiding.

Supply and Demand Dynamics

From a supply and demand perspective, Mega Anhui believes the significance of Qatar resuming exports extends beyond simply increasing spot supply. It also improves buyers' assessment of subsequent vessel schedules and arrival stability, which directly impacts the volatility of regional natural gas prices.

If major exporting nations maintain continuous shipments, the urgency for European and Asian buyers to secure cargoes at high prices could diminish. The market is more likely to shift from short-term price spikes to rational pricing based on inventory levels, weather patterns, and power generation demand.

Price Outlook and Balancing Factors

Whether natural gas prices will continue to decline depends on the balance between the pace of new supply materialization and the strength of summer consumption. Mega Anhui analysis indicates that as long as the export recovery process remains smooth, the risk premium in the natural gas market is expected to further contract.