A research report from China Merchants Securities (CMSC) indicates that the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran in late February 2026 led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, expanding the global crude oil supply deficit. The combination of rising geopolitical premiums and increased transportation costs has established a systematic upward shift in the oil price benchmark. Rising oil prices are expected to cause fluctuations in the manufacturing costs of new energy vehicles and their export shipping expenses. The firm maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry, advising investors to focus on investment opportunities within the vehicle manufacturing sector, particularly leading companies across various segments. The main viewpoints from CMSC are as follows:
The impact of rising oil prices on the new energy vehicle industry: The core difference in usage costs between traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles lies in oil prices. An increase in oil prices directly amplifies the cost disadvantage of operating fuel vehicles, enhancing the cost-effectiveness of new energy vehicles. This shift encourages consumer purchasing decisions to favor new energy models, creating a substitution effect that ultimately boosts the sales volume and market penetration of new energy vehicles. However, rising oil prices will also introduce volatility to the manufacturing costs of new energy vehicles and their export shipping fees. Calculations show that if oil prices rise from $80 to $100 per barrel, corresponding domestic gasoline retail prices would increase from approximately 8 yuan per liter to about 10 yuan per liter. This would raise the annual fuel expenditure for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle users by around 2,100 yuan, while electricity costs for electric vehicle (EV) users remain largely unaffected. Over a five-year vehicle usage cycle, the implicit cost disadvantage for ICE vehicles expands by approximately 10,500 yuan.
The impact of rising oil prices on the bus industry: The global transportation sector is undergoing an energy transition. As a core component of road passenger transport, the choice of power source for buses directly impacts operating costs, carbon emissions, and sustainable development strategies. Rising oil prices will further accelerate the global shift towards electric buses. Under standard operating conditions, calculations indicate that the operating costs of pure electric buses are lower than those of diesel buses in eight representative global markets, with savings ranging from 55.9% in the UAE to 75.9% in China. In China, benefiting from extremely low industrial electricity rates and relatively stable diesel prices, pure electric buses save approximately $20.17 (about 145.2 yuan) per 100 kilometers. Based on an average annual operation of 150,000 kilometers, each pure electric bus can save about $30,300 (approximately 218,000 yuan) per year.
The impact of rising oil prices on the heavy-duty truck industry: Soaring oil prices present significant qualitative and quantitative challenges to the heavy-duty truck sector. In terms of energy structure, high oil prices are accelerating the industry's transition towards new energy and natural gas-powered trucks. Regionally, supply chain restructuring triggered by Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts has increased land transport demand in the area, indirectly boosting the export growth of Chinese heavy-duty trucks. Calculations reveal a clear divergence in the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) and profitability among different powertrain heavy-duty trucks in long-haul, standard-load line-haul scenarios. Using a five-year operational cycle with an annual mileage of 120,000 kilometers for diesel, natural gas, and pure electric heavy-duty trucks as an example, the annual energy cost ranking is: natural gas trucks > pure electric trucks > diesel trucks. Specifically, natural gas trucks can save about 170,000 yuan per year compared to diesel trucks, while pure electric trucks can save approximately 160,000 yuan per year. The disparity in the five-year total TCO is even more pronounced. As the oil price benchmark rises, the price gap between oil and natural gas widens, and electricity prices remain stable, the five-year TCO for natural gas and pure electric heavy-duty trucks will be significantly lower than that of diesel trucks, highlighting their economic advantages.
Risk warnings include repeated fluctuations in the macroeconomic environment, non-linear surges in raw material costs, and paralysis of maritime logistics.